Introduction Subnational population projections produced every two years Projection by age and sex Projection for every LA in England Based on mid-year.

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Presentation transcript:

BSPS 29 February Mid-2006 based Subnational Population Projections – Jonathan Swan SPEaQE

Introduction Subnational population projections produced every two years Projection by age and sex Projection for every LA in England Based on mid-year estimates Preceded by consultation Cover 25 years i.e. 2006 based go up to 2031

2006 based Timetable February 2008 - Calculation of provisional project’s 6 March - Start of Consultation 17 April - End of Consultation April - Analysis of Consultation Responses Reply to responses May/June - Final Calculations and QA June 2008 - (date tba) Main Publication August 21 - Analysis of Accuracy published [December 2008 – Earliest date for variants]

Basic Methodology Cohort Component Method Trend Based Projections Pt+1 = Pt + B – D + M Trend Based Projections Based on Past Trends Projections not Forecasts Do not take account of policy considerations Top Down Components Constrained to National Projections LA as base unit PCOs by proportional allocation

The Consultation Part One: Consultation on Initial Migration Assumptions Traditionally done every new base year Consultation with Local, Health, and Regional Authorities only District Level LA lead. Part Two Open to all Consultation on Outputs Internet tables / Tables on Request Variants Demand and Which variants Methods to be used

Criteria for accepting change during the consultation Consultation is focused on the migration assumptions in the first year of projections Assumptions are based on recent demographic trends Internal Migration based on past 5 years data from patient register International Migration based on new MYE methods Clear evidence required that the level of migration is incorrect before projections are adjusted Major one-off change in employment situation Areas with high student populations Consultation paper has more info.

Criteria for accepting change during the consultation (2) Dwelling stock plans will not be considered Unlike GLA, Projections unconstrained by Housing Capacity New Housing Estates not directly allowed for Inevitable that projections for small areas are prone to greater uncertainty Assumptions of fertility and mortality use high quality registration data Any RELIABLE migration data will be considered – if it shows a different trend

Syndicate Sessions As consultation not out - Change to 3 groups Modelling Components (Combined group): How can we change migration and natural change components to reflect local variation? How can this be done systematically? Can/Should this be related to national variant methods? Which Variants Should we do? Which are the most important scenarios? What are the driving needs for variants? How can we do a housing constrained variant? (new Group) Which data sources? (Regional plans?) Using what methodology? Relationship between housing and population complex. A chance for YOU to be involved in setting work-programme direction. In parallel to consultation.

Rest of day .. Syndicate Session will be followed by feedback. Then a chance to discuss issues from the day and ask the panel. A chance for YOU to be involved in setting work-programme direction. In parallel to consultation.