Directors of Social Statistics Board (DSSB) 4-5 December 2017 Item 6 'Towards more agile social statistics' Use of provisional income registers to improve timeliness Directors of Social Statistics Board (DSSB) 4-5 December 2017

Background Needs for timelier social statistics in particular in the context of the European Semester SILC national action plans on timeliness and regionalisation of EU-SILC since 2014 Progresses achieved and around 20 Member States provided their 2016 SILC microdata files at the latest in June/July 2017 and all but one in October BUT SILC survey collected in N+1 made available by October N+2 contains income data N, close to 2 years after, by June N+2 still 1.5 year after

Timeliness SILC (EU28 MS) SILC data N+1 Income N ≤31/12 N+1 ≤31/03 ≤30/06 09 N+2 Income N+1 ≤30/09 2018 2017 data 2016 income 2017 Income 2016 DK, (LV, HU) ? 2016 data 2015 income 2016 LV, HU 5 18 FE Income 2016 26 HU 14 27 2015 4 10 24 2014 7 2013 3 15

Use preliminary income registers Difficulties in particular for countries using registers as, e.g., taxes registers need time to finalise fiscal adjustments (or social security files) Conference on Social Statistics 2016: DK & SI presented the use of preliminary income data from registers Implemented by DK in 2017 for 2017 SILC i.e. income 2016 (provisional / final) LV & HU final – HU: survey; LV: also registers Sequence containing first (flash) estimates, then provisional but real results and final results

Preliminary incomes coverage Type of income – Slide Statistics DK Preliminary incomes coverage (2014) Coverage in per cent (March/April N+1) 98,6 % 1,1 % 98,0 % 80,8 %

Difference in percentage points Type of income – Slide Statistics SI (preliminary: June N+1) Difference by wages   Ratio Difference in percentage points Ratio 2012 sum gross final/sum gross preliminary 100.51 0.51 Ratio 2012 sum net final/sum net preliminary 100.46 0.46 Ratio 2012 receivers final/receivers preliminary 100.31 0.31 Ratio 2013 sum gross final/sum gross preliminary 101.01 1.01 Ratio 2013 sum net final/sum net preliminary 101.03 1.03 Ratio 2013 receivers final/receivers preliminary 100.63 0.63 Source: SURS, FURS

Difference by pensions Type of income – Slide Statistics SI (preliminary: June N+1) Difference by pensions   Ratio Difference in percentage points Ratio 2012 sum gross final/sum gross preliminary 100.06 0.06 Ratio 2012 sum net final/sum net preliminary Ratio 2012 receivers final/receivers preliminary 100.01 0.01 Ratio 2013 sum gross final/sum gross preliminary 100.05 0.05 Ratio 2013 sum net final/sum net preliminary Ratio 2013 receivers final/receivers preliminary 100.03 0.03 Source: SURS, FURS

Imputations – Slide Statistics DK The missing components of ”other income” - Potential data sources at N+4. Non taxable transfers Timely available in public registers. In some cases we might need earlier data deliveries Income from self-employment Imputation based on income from previous years, current wage levels and market developments Property income Imputation based on income from previous years, the wealth register, interest rates and stock market data Imputed rent Housing evaluation register from prior year and the population register

Imputations and editing All data from SILC were copied to another server; we added preliminary data in an additional table. The data were processed there. We used completely the same methods for data processing as in regular SILC data processing. For the data where we found mistakes in 2012 but not in further years, we took the final data also for calculating indicators from preliminary data

Timeliness vs. quality What is the "good time" to extract preliminary income register data, i.e. criteria? Current "final" is still slightly revised later by administrations in charge, hence: Are earlier (preliminary) data "provisional"? Sequence: (flash) estimates / provisional / final Or can they replace the current "final"? Is quality (wages, transfers, imputations) enough (including for breakdowns)? Communication issues?

DSS board is asked to discuss The feasibility: Accessibility to preliminary income register data (legal or other barriers)? When would they be available (after income year)? With which quality ("good time")? Which methods to impute missing data? Already some national projects / experiences? How to make the best use of it: complementary (internal) only, provisional or final data? (Other) advantages or difficulties? Is this approach relevant for further tackling timeliness (using registers), if yes, next steps?