Sea Breeze Initiated Thunderstorms Relating to Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Convective Inhibition (CINH) Javier Rosa Department of.

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Presentation transcript:

Sea Breeze Initiated Thunderstorms Relating to Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Convective Inhibition (CINH) Javier Rosa Department of Marine and Environmental Systems Florida Institute of Technology Melbourne, Florida 32901 July 16, 2008

Overview What is the purpose for this project? What is CAPE/CINH? Why look at CAPE/CINH? How are values gathered? Where is area of focus for this project? Is there a threshold for CAPE in thunderstorms?

Purpose Find a threshold for CAPE values in thunderstorms initiated by the sea breeze Provide ability to forecast sea breeze thunderstorms using CAPE as a predictor

What is CAPE/CINH? CAPE is the integrated area of positive buoyancy CINH is the integrated area of negative buoyancy CAPE = Instability CINH = Stability

Why look at CAPE/CINH? CAPE is needed for thunderstorm development (accelerating motion) CINH can limit thunderstorm initiation (decelerating motion) Previous study indicated threshold values for CAPE (Solomon, R., and M. Baker, 1994)

Sounding Data Launched 3 times a day (5 AM, 11 AM, 5PM) CAPE = Positive Buoyancy CINH = Negative Buoyancy Most Unstable parcel was used for project CAPE CINH

North American Mesoscale (NAM) Forecast Model NAM is an atmospheric prediction model NAM forecast runs every 6 hours with 3 hour forecast intervals up to 84 hours for each run 12 km resolution 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500

Area of Study The area of study includes the Cape Canaveral region and its surrounding areas

Methods Locate sea breeze thunderstorms using Melbourne radar reflectivity Get CAPE and CINH values using sounding data and NAM forecast model

Sea Breeze Boundary

Thunderstorm Initiation

Thunderstorm Initiation

Additional Thunderstorm Initiation

More Storm Initiation

CAPE Statistics Using NAM Forecast Model Not statistically different Cannot differentiate between yes and no cases

CAPE Statistics Using Sounding Data Not statistically different Cannot differentiate between yes and no cases

CINH Statistics Using Sounding Data Not statistically different Cannot differentiate between yes and no cases

Conclusion CAPE is not a good predictor of sea breeze thunderstorms based on data set CINH was not a factor in limiting thunderstorm initiation

Any Questions/Comments? Takashi Kida

References Wilson, J.W., and D.L. Megenhardt, 1997: Thunderstorm Initiation, Organization, and Lifetime Associated with Florida Boundary Layer Convergence Lines. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 1507–1525. Weisman, M. L., and J. B. Klemp, 1982: The dependence of numerically simulated convective storms on vertical wind shear and buoyancy. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 504–520. Solomon, R., and M. Baker, 1994: Electrification of New Mexico Thunderstorms. /Mon. Wea. Rev./, *122*, 1878–1886.