From Food Quantity to Diet Quality: How the Race Against Malthus is Changing Will Masters Friedman School of Nutrition Science & Policy, Tufts University.

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Presentation transcript:

From Food Quantity to Diet Quality: How the Race Against Malthus is Changing Will Masters Friedman School of Nutrition Science & Policy, Tufts University www.nutrition.tufts.edu | http://sites.tufts.edu/willmasters Tufts Research Day on Global Food Security 25 April 2016

Last week, more bad news from Africa: Also, this:

The race against Malthus is changing as commodities get cheaper and population growth slows down 1800 1850 We are here (approx.)

The race against Malthus is changing from more food to more diverse foods Source: Calculated from FAO Food Balance Sheet data, faostat3.fao.org/download/FB/FBS/E

...but not always healthier foods Source: Calculated from FAO Food Balance Sheet data, faostat3.fao.org/download/FB/FBS/E

...and diverse trajectories over time Source: Calculated from FAO Food Balance Sheet data, faostat3.fao.org/download/FB/FBS/E

The food system’s race against Malthus runs through rural population growth >50% urban in 2008 Rural peaks in 2028 “peak rural” is 2022 Source: Calculated from UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 Revision. Released July 2014 at http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup.

The most delayed demographic transition is in Sub-Saharan Africa >50% urban in 2008 >50% urban in 2040 “peak rural” is 2022 Rural still rising past 2050! Source: Calculated from UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 Revision. Released July 2014 at http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup.

Despite its fast-growing cities, Africa is the last frontier of Malthusian rural population growth >50% urban in 2040 Rural still rising past 2050! 1800 1850 Source: Calculated from UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 Revision. Released July 2014 at http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup.

Much to discuss today!

The race against Malthus is changing In English language books, “hunger” declined after 1945 but rose again after 2005, “obesity” rose in 1970s and since 2000 1800 1850 Source: Google Books ngram viewer, https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=hunger,obesity&year_start=1900&year_end=2015