Opinion poll on referundum July 2010

Introduction and Methodology Strategic Research conducted an opinion poll to gauge the opinion of Kenyans on the up coming referendum. The survey targeted Kenyans who are 18 years and above and who are eligible to vote Forthcoming referendum. Survey Area Country wide Sample size 3002 Sample distribution Simple Random Sampling Target Population Respondents at Household level Instrument Face-to-face administered Questionnaire Field Dates July 9th – 14th 2010

Demographics Age % Religion 18-24 29.8 Muslim 9.8 25-29 17.5 Christian - Catholic 35.9 30-34 16.2 Christian - Protestant 51.2 35-39 11.2 Indigenous 1.3 40-44 7.9 No religion 0.2 45-49 RTA 1.5 50+ 9.4 0.6 Total 100.0 Gender Marital status   Male 52.6 Married 53.6 Female 47.4 Single 39.0 Separated/divorced 3.6 Location Widow/Widower 3.7 Urban 44.5 2.2 Rural 55.5 87% of the respondents were Christians with Muslims constituting about 10%. Most of those interviewed were less than 40 years of age with those in the 18-24 age group being the majority

Demographics – Regions covered Province % Nairobi 6.9 Coast 9.4 Central 13.5 Eastern 15.9 Rift Valley 27.8 Western 10.7 Nyanza 11.4 North eastern 4.4 Total 100.0 Education % Never went to school 4.3 Primary not completed 4.8 Completed primary 9.2 Secondary not completed 12.2 29.4 Completed secondary 19.3 College/University not completed 18.1 Completed college/University 0.3 RTA 2.4 Total 97.6

Are you a registered voter Why are you not registered N % I applied for identification card recently and not gotten it/I have no ID 111 29.1 Lost ID 61 16.0 Has no interest/I don’t want to vote 78 20.5 Delayed to get a registration card 23 6.0 Has no time 22 5.8 Did not register 16 4.2 I don’t like politics I don’t want to see a repeat of the 2007/2008 clashes 14 3.7 Of those who have not registered to vote in the referendum, 45% said they did not because they did not have identification cards.

Are you likely to vote in the coming referundum

Are you likely to vote in the coming referundum Are you likely to vote in the coming referendum Cross-tabulation Age Very likely Somewhat likely Neither likely no unlikely Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely 18-24 67.7% 7.6% 3.1% 2.0% 19.6% 25-29 74.0% 10.4% 3.8% 1.4% 30-34 75.1% 8.9% 3.2% 1.7% 11.1% 35-39 79.8% 7.1% 1.9% 8.1% 40-44 80.1% 8.7% 1.3% 0.9% 9.1% 45-49 82.3% 8.0% 1.8% 0.0% 50+ 73.3% 7.2% 3.6% 1.1% 14.8%

Are you likely to vote in the coming referendum Cross tabulation Are you likely to vote in the coming referendum – cross tabulation by religion/denomination Are you likely to vote in the coming referendum Cross tabulation Religion Very likely Somewhat likely Neither likely no unlikely Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely Muslim 73.1% 10.8% 2.4% 1.0% 12.6% Christian - Catholic 75.0% 7.9% 2.6% 1.7% 12.8% Christian - Protestant 73.5% 8.0% 3.5% 1.5% 13.6% Indigenous 100.0% 0.0% 80.6% 8.3% 2.8% 5.6% No religion 66.7% 33.3%

Have you heard/read about the proposed constitution

What is your main source of information on the contents of the proposed constitution

Newspaper read most often

Favourite - Radio station

Have you had access to a copy of the proposed constitution

False hoods

Truths about the proposed constitution

Other than reading the proposed constitution, what are your other sources of info about the proposed constitution

In your view, would you say the draft constitution is a very good document or needs amendments

Should religious leaders take sides on the constitutional referendum

Has the media covered the referendum in an open manner TV/Radio/Print Has the media covered the referendum in an open manner without bias to either the yes camp or the no camp..   Yes No Don't know TV 66.1 15.9 18.0 Radio 67.5 18.6 13.9 Print 60.9 14.5 24.6

How would you vote in the coming referendum

How would you vote in the forth coming referendum Cross tabulation How would you vote in the coming referendum – cross-tabulation by region How would you vote in the forth coming referendum Cross tabulation   Yes No Undecided Nairobi 76.9% 11.6% Coast 54.9% 18.8% 26.3% Central 64.9% 14.0% 21.2% Eastern 48.9% 29.7% 21.4% Rift Valley 51.5% 31.5% 17.0% Western 73.3% 14.2% 12.5% Nyanza 83.5% 3.7% 12.8% North eastern 77.8% 8.7% 13.5%

Thank you