Smart Talk with Dr. Robin Gaster

Insert@4:45 Views on the Impact of Robots and AI

McKinsey Automation Estimates Insert@12:21 McKinsey Automation Estimates Automation is coming everywhere. No robots or AI required. Estimates based on current technology Methodology underestimates change in professions “Creative” jobs are not automatically protected e.g. AlphaGo Previous transformation were of course important. They affected substantial sections of important industries. But they were not universal. Automation, digitization, and globalization are affecting almost every sector in the economy. Lawyers have been disrupted by discovery software; radiologists find themselves competing with certified competitors from India, and can see AI-driven pattern recognition coming in months, not years. The McKinsey chart is interesting because it shows how widespread disruption will be using today’s technology. But we already know that technology improves rapidly, so this is perhaps a bgest-case scenario – the slowest model of transformation. A word on creative jobs: Go is a subtle game that requires substantial creativity. I offer three data points: AlphaGo beat the European champions in Oct 2015; by March 2016 is had been the legendary world champion, Lee Sedol. “During the games, AlphaGo played a handful of highly inventive winning moves, several of which - including move 37 in game two - were so surprising they overturned hundreds of years of received wisdom”. In what sense is this not “creative?” AlphaGo no longer needs to be trained directly; it can now train itself to the same level simply by playing games against itself.

Insert@10:23 A lot of estimates floating around. Bain’s analysis is solid. Here’s what they sau aboput the service sector Note the explicit comparison with previous transformations. We will come back to that. Also apparent that we are not even fully seeing the wave of change – there is much more to come.

Insert@12:47 “An emerging class, comprising the rapidly growing number of people facing lives of insecurity, moving in an out of jobs that give little meaning to their lives.” (Guy Standing, 2011)

Insert@15:28 'Gig Economy’ An economy where temporary and flexible jobs are commonplace, and companies tend toward hiring independent contractors and freelancers instead of full-time employees. The gig economy undermines the traditional economy of full-time workers who rarely change positions and instead focus on a lifetime career. Source: Investopedia

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Insert@18:57 Zero-hours Contract A contract where the employer does not have to provide regular work for the employee, but the employee has to be on call in case they are needed to work. Source: Collins Dictionary

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Insert@54:26 Shareholder value, sometimes phrased as shareholder value maximization or as the shareholder value model, implies that the ultimate measure of a company's success is the extent to which it enriches shareholders. It became popular during the 1980s, and is particularly associated with former CEO of General Electric, Jack Welch. Source: Wikipedia

Geographic Mobility nearly halved since 1985 Insert@57:15 …Less willing to move Geographic Mobility nearly halved since 1985

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