Potential Environmental and Ecological Effects of Global Climate Change on Venomous Terrestrial Species in the Wilderness Robert K. Needleman, MD, Isabelle.

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Presentation transcript:

Potential Environmental and Ecological Effects of Global Climate Change on Venomous Terrestrial Species in the Wilderness Robert K. Needleman, MD, Isabelle P. Neylan, Timothy Erickson, MD, FACEP, FACMT, FAACT Wilderness & Environmental Medicine Volume 29, Issue 2, Pages 226-238 (June 2018) DOI: 10.1016/j.wem.2017.11.004 Copyright © 2017 Wilderness Medical Society Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 The global burden of snakebites. Source: Gutierrez et al.13 Used with permission. Wilderness & Environmental Medicine 2018 29, 226-238DOI: (10.1016/j.wem.2017.11.004) Copyright © 2017 Wilderness Medical Society Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Changes in suitable climate spaces between present climatic conditions and 2080 for 5 snake species. A, Bothrops alternatus. B, Bothrops ammodytoides. C, Bothrops diporus. D, Crotalus durissus terrificus. E, Micrurus pyrrhocryptus. Source: Nori et al.16 Used with permission. Wilderness & Environmental Medicine 2018 29, 226-238DOI: (10.1016/j.wem.2017.11.004) Copyright © 2017 Wilderness Medical Society Terms and Conditions

Figure 3 Changes in suitable climatic spaces and potential distributions between current and future conditions for Agkistrodon contortrix (copperhead viper). The 4 maps are categorized by different representative concentration pathways (RCPs), which are greenhouse gas concentration trajectories adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Two representative pathways (RCP 26 and RCP 85) were used in the modelling, which represent relatively conservative and liberal degrees of climate change expected, respectively. Source: Yanez-Arenas et al.17 Used with permission. Wilderness & Environmental Medicine 2018 29, 226-238DOI: (10.1016/j.wem.2017.11.004) Copyright © 2017 Wilderness Medical Society Terms and Conditions

Figure 4 Current and future snakebite risk predictions in America and associated uncertainty (standard deviation). Source: Yanez-Arenas et al.17 Used with permission. Wilderness & Environmental Medicine 2018 29, 226-238DOI: (10.1016/j.wem.2017.11.004) Copyright © 2017 Wilderness Medical Society Terms and Conditions

Figure 5 Current and future predictions of suitable habitats under 2 future climate scenarios for the year 2100 for 11 rattlesnake species. Source: Lawing et al.18 Used with permission. Wilderness & Environmental Medicine 2018 29, 226-238DOI: (10.1016/j.wem.2017.11.004) Copyright © 2017 Wilderness Medical Society Terms and Conditions

Figure 6 Map of distribution of the 6 Loxosceles species in North America. Source: Vetter.27 Used with permission. Wilderness & Environmental Medicine 2018 29, 226-238DOI: (10.1016/j.wem.2017.11.004) Copyright © 2017 Wilderness Medical Society Terms and Conditions

Figure 7 Future niche modeling results for 3 time slices: 2020, 2050, and 2080. This figure includes 2 methods of species niche model programs, Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction and Maxent. Both are machine-learning methods that rely upon combining species characteristics and survival probability to project distribution. Two climate scenarios were used: a2a (liberal) and b2a (conservative). The dotted shape indicated current distribution of L reclusa. Source: Saupe et al.8 Used with permission. Wilderness & Environmental Medicine 2018 29, 226-238DOI: (10.1016/j.wem.2017.11.004) Copyright © 2017 Wilderness Medical Society Terms and Conditions

Figure 8 Average predicted proportion of current climatically suitable landmass on each continent for 15 invasive ants studied (blue pie chart) and predicted change after climate change (red percentage indicates an increase in range; green percentage indicates a decrease). Source: Bertelsmeier et al.42 Used with permission. Wilderness & Environmental Medicine 2018 29, 226-238DOI: (10.1016/j.wem.2017.11.004) Copyright © 2017 Wilderness Medical Society Terms and Conditions

Figure 9 Spatial shift of suitable areas of 5 ant species that demonstrate different patterns. Source: Bertelsmeier et al.40 Used with permission. Wilderness & Environmental Medicine 2018 29, 226-238DOI: (10.1016/j.wem.2017.11.004) Copyright © 2017 Wilderness Medical Society Terms and Conditions

Figure 10 Map showing current and predicted potential range of Solenopsis invicta in the southeastern United States under expected climate change scenario. Source: Morrison et al.54 Used with permission. Wilderness & Environmental Medicine 2018 29, 226-238DOI: (10.1016/j.wem.2017.11.004) Copyright © 2017 Wilderness Medical Society Terms and Conditions