Probability management As Created by Professor Sam Savage This is a presentation about Probability Management as created by Professor Sam Savage.

Overview Introduction to Probability Management What kind of people use Probability Management? What kind of organizations use Probability Management? How important is Probability Management to the world of business? Who has no value for Probability Management and/or may struggle to use it? The above is the overview for this presentation. This presentation will have an introduction to Probability Management as created by Professor Sam Savage. The presentation will answer the question, what kind of people use Probability Management? What kind of organizations use Probability Management? How important is Probability Management to the world of business? And who has no value for Probability Management and/or may struggle to use it?

Introduction https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=23&v=4F6wsJsyPmI This video above will explain what Probability Management is (Probability Management, 2016). The video also responds to the following questions: What kind of people use Probability Management? What kind of organizations use Probability Management? How important is Probability Management to the world of business? Rethinking Uncertainty "ProbabilityManagement.org is “a non-profit organization that aims at improving communication of uncertainty,” and applies “simulation-based communication to improve actual managerial decisions and public policies.” - MIT’s SLOAN Management Review “Probability management provides a level of clarity previously unavailable to senior Navy decision makers. Interactive stochastic modeling can alter the conversation from ‘What’s the right answer?’ to ‘What’s the right question?’”  - David Cashbaugh, Director of Navy Personnel Research, Studies, and Technology “Stochastic Information Packets (SIPs) are an ideal means for modeling and conveying uncertainty in a standardized fashion. We continue to believe that SIPs will play an increasing role in the way organizations manage uncertainty.” - Eric Wainwright, Co-founder and Chief Technology Officer of Oracle Crystal Ball

No probability management Handling uncertainty represents the most significant need in converting quantitative insight into profitable action. Yet, explicitly incorporating uncertainty into analytics continues to present theoretical and practical challenges. Because computational results are tied so closely to model inputs, stochastic approaches require the modeler to make strong, sometime unwarranted, assumptions on key inputs such as probability distributions. When such assumptions are challenged by subject-matter experts and end- users, it is difficult to reanalyze and regroup because stochastic methods are typically computationally intensive (Saigal, Summer 2009). Handling uncertainty represents the most significant need in converting quantitative insight into profitable action. Yet, explicitly incorporating uncertainty into analytics continues to present theoretical and practical challenges. Because computational results are tied so closely to model inputs, stochastic approaches require the modeler to make strong, sometime unwarranted, assumptions on key inputs such as probability distributions. When such assumptions are challenged by subject-matter experts and end-users, it is difficult to reanalyze and regroup because stochastic methods are typically computationally intensive (Saigal, Summer 2009).

Conclusion This presentation has looked at the following: Introduction to Probability Management What kind of people use Probability Management? What kind of organizations use Probability Management? How important is Probability Management to the world of business? Who has no value for Probability Management and/or may struggle to use it? This presentation has looked at the following: Introduction to Probability Management What kind of people use Probability Management? What kind of organizations use Probability Management? How important is Probability Management to the world of business? Who has no value for Probability Management and/or may struggle to use it?

references Probability Management. (2016). Probability Management. Retrieved from: http://probabilitymanagement.org/what-we-do.html Saigal, S. (Summer 2009). Flaw of Averages: Probability Management in Action. Baltimore, Maryland: Analytics. Retrieved from: http://analytics- magazine.org/flaw-of-averages-probability-management-in-action/ Probability Management. (2016). Probability Management. Retrieved from: http://probabilitymanagement.org/what-we-do.html Saigal, S. (Summer 2009). Flaw of Averages: Probability Management in Action. Baltimore, Maryland: Analytics. Retrieved from: http://analytics-magazine.org/flaw-of-averages-probability-management-in-action/