Dr. Gernot Nerb, Ifo Institute

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Presentation transcript:

Dr. Gernot Nerb, Ifo Institute Comparisons of Downswing Phases Dr. Gernot Nerb, Ifo Institute November 2007 OECD-EU Workshop

Which scenario is most likely in 2007/ 2008 ?

Soft landing as in 1995/1996 or 1998/1999

… or hard landing as in 1973/1974/1975 or 1990/1991/1992/1993 ?

Current business situation Ifo Business Cycle Clock - Manufacturing Industry1) Assessment of current business situation vs. business expectations -40 -30 -20 -10 10 20 30 Upswing Downswing Boom Recession Jan. 2004 Jan. 2006 Jan. 2000 Jan. 2007 Jan. 1998 Jan. 2005 October 2007 Expectations for the next 6 months Jan. 2003 Jan. 2001 Jan. 1999 Jan. 2002 WTC Attack Sept. 11 -30 -20 -10 10 20 30 50 40 Current business situation 1) Manufacturing industry including food, beverages and tobacco. Balances, seasonally adjusted. Sources: Ifo Business Survey, Germany.

Good chances for a soft landing Thank you