Climate Change and Animal Agriculture: Thinking Beyond the Spherical Steer Eugene S. Takle Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 gstakle@iastate.edu Animal Think Tank, Iowa State University 26 February 2007

Outline Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide Radiative forcing Simulations of global climate and future climate change Climate change for Iowa and the Midwest Four components for addressing climate change Impacts of climate change on animal agriculture Except where noted as personal views or from the ISU Global Change course or the Iowa Environmental Mesonet, all materials presented herein are from peer-reviewed scientific reports

CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.

CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843. Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years Natural cycles

IPCC Third Assessment Report

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2007 380 ppm

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2050 550 ppm

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature “Business as Usual” 950 ppm

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature “Business as Usual” 950 ppm ?

E. S. Takle, ISU Global Change course

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif

Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes, 1999: Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.

Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.

Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Natural cycles

Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research From Jerry Meehl This slide shows the time evolution of globally averaged surface air temperature from multiple ensemble simulations of 20th century climate from the NCAR Parallel Climate Model (PCM) compared to observations. The simulations start in the late 19th century, and continue to the year 2000. The temperature scale at left is in degrees Centigrade, and temperature anomalies are calculated relative to a reference period averaged from 1890 to 1919. The black line shows the observed data, or the actual, recorded globally averaged surface air temperatures from the past century. The blue and red lines are the average of four simulations each from the computer model. The pink and light blue shaded areas depict the range of the four simulations for each experiment, giving an idea of the uncertainty of a given realization of 20th century climate from the climate model. The blue line shows the average from the four member ensemble of the simulated time evolution of globally average surface air temperature when only "natural" influences (solar variability and volcanic eruptions) are included in the model. Therefore, the blue line represents what the model says global average temperatures would have been if there had been no human influences. The red line shows the average of the four member ensemble experiment when natural forcings AND anthropogenic influences (greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide, sulfate aerosols from air pollution, and ozone changes) are included in the model. Note that this model can reproduce the actual, observed data very well only if the combined effects of natural and anthropogenic factors are included. The conclusion that can be drawn is that naturally occuring influences on climate contributed to most of the warming that occurred before WWII, but that the large observed temperature increases since the 1970s can only be simulated in the model if anthropogenic factors are included. This confirms the conclusion of the IPCC Third Assessment Report that most of the warming we have observed in the latter part of the 20th century has been due to human influences. Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

At present trends the imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018 El Chichon (1982) Agung, 1963 Mt. Pinatubo (1991) At present trends the imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018 Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research From Jerry Meehl This slide shows the time evolution of globally averaged surface air temperature from multiple ensemble simulations of 20th century climate from the NCAR Parallel Climate Model (PCM) compared to observations. The simulations start in the late 19th century, and continue to the year 2000. The temperature scale at left is in degrees Centigrade, and temperature anomalies are calculated relative to a reference period averaged from 1890 to 1919. The black line shows the observed data, or the actual, recorded globally averaged surface air temperatures from the past century. The blue and red lines are the average of four simulations each from the computer model. The pink and light blue shaded areas depict the range of the four simulations for each experiment, giving an idea of the uncertainty of a given realization of 20th century climate from the climate model. The blue line shows the average from the four member ensemble of the simulated time evolution of globally average surface air temperature when only "natural" influences (solar variability and volcanic eruptions) are included in the model. Therefore, the blue line represents what the model says global average temperatures would have been if there had been no human influences. The red line shows the average of the four member ensemble experiment when natural forcings AND anthropogenic influences (greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide, sulfate aerosols from air pollution, and ozone changes) are included in the model. Note that this model can reproduce the actual, observed data very well only if the combined effects of natural and anthropogenic factors are included. The conclusion that can be drawn is that naturally occuring influences on climate contributed to most of the warming that occurred before WWII, but that the large observed temperature increases since the 1970s can only be simulated in the model if anthropogenic factors are included. This confirms the conclusion of the IPCC Third Assessment Report that most of the warming we have observed in the latter part of the 20th century has been due to human influences. Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Tropical Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI) Sea-surface temperature V V V Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.

Tropical Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI) Sea-surface temperature V V V Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

Also… Precipitation in the central US has increased since 1970 Fraction of high-precipitation events has increased since 1970 Extended ice-free periods of lakes has increased Milder winters

Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Mitigation Possible Adaptation Necessary Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

Projected Changes for the Climate of Iowa/Midwest (My tentative assessment) Longer frost-free period (high) Higher average winter temperatures (high) Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high) More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium) Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high) More (~10%) precipitation (medium) More variability of summer precipitation (high) More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high) Higher episodic streamflow (medium) Longer periods without rain (medium) Higher absolute humidity (high) Stronger storm systems (medium) Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models inconclusive

Four-Component Approach for Addressing Climate Change Mitigation policies: 2050-2100 Example: reduction in GHG emissions Adaptation (long-term): 2015-2050 Example: Developing Iowa’s competitive economic advantage Adaptation (short-term): 2008-2015 Example: redefining climate “normals” when needed and scientifically justified Scenario planning for Iowa’s “Katrina”: 2007-2100 Example: Multi-year drought, recurrent floods, combination of both; drought and wildfire EST personal view

Adaptation Tactics If a meteorological variable began departing from its long-term background near or after 1970 it may be related to the radiation imbalance and thereby has a better chance than not of continuing its new trend over the next 5-10 years. EST personal view

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

Projected Changes for the Climate of Iowa/Midwest (My tentative assessment) Longer frost-free period (high) Higher average winter temperatures (high) Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high) More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium) Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high) More (~10%) precipitation (medium) More variability of summer precipitation (high) More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high) Higher episodic streamflow (medium) Longer periods without rain (medium) Higher absolute humidity (high) Stronger storm systems (medium) Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models inconclusive

North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program Linda O. Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric Research Principal Investigator Raymond Arritt, William Gutowski, Gene Takle, Iowa State University Erasmo Buono, Richard Jones, Hadley Centre, UK Daniel Caya, OURANOS, Canada Phil Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA Filippo Giorgi, Jeremy Pal, Abdus Salam ICTP, Italy Isaac Held, Ron Stouffer, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA René Laprise, Univ. de Québec à Montréal, Canada Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA Linda O. Mearns, Doug Nychka, Phil Rasch, Tom Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA Ana Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA Steve Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/

Kansas

Kansas

Kansas

Kansas

Kansas

Kansas

Kansas

Kansas

Kansas

Kansas

Temperature-Humidity Index THI = (Dry bulb temperature oC) + (0.36* dew point temperature oC) +41.2 THI threshold values: - Dairy cows 72 Mild 72-79 Moderate 80-89 Severe 90-98 Dangerous >98 - Beef cattle 72 – 75 - Swine 72 – 74 - Poultry 70 – 78

Impact of Animal Agriculture on Climate Change Production of greenhouse gases: methane (digestion, wastes), nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide (growing of feedstuff) Impact of waste materials on carbon and nutrient cycles Altered land use patterns

Impact of Climate Change on Animal Agriculture Reduced weight gain of meat animals in summer, maybe increased in winter More freeze-thaw cycles (animal health) Reduced milk production for dairy cows Reduced breeding successes Altered vectors for pathogens Reduced nutritional value of feed due to altered C:N ratios

For More Information For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have seen in this presentation, see my online Global Change course: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse Contact me directly: gstakle@iastate.edu Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at Iowa State Unversity under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/ North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/ For this and other climate change presentations see my personal website: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/