Wataru NAKAZAWA (Osaka University, Japan) wnakazawa@hus.osaka-u.ac.jp Decreasing Population, Educational Expansion, and Inequality of Opportunity : Japan as a Low-Fertility Society 2015 Summer Meeting of RC28 at the University of Pennsylvania Wataru NAKAZAWA (Osaka University, Japan) wnakazawa@hus.osaka-u.ac.jp

Changes of population at age 18 and advancement rate to universities Source: Report on School Basic Survey, Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology

Changes in the Advancement Rate and the Placement rate Source: Report on School Basic Survey, Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology

Higher Education Expansion Population of age 18 has decreased since the 1990s. In contrast, the advancement rate to tertiary education increased. The choice of tertiary educational institutions: university, junior college, and specialized training colleges. University entrants increased because of reorganization of junior colleges. It has been difficult for high school graduates to obtain regular jobs due to the bad economic conditions. People believe that it become easier to pass the entrance examination for universities, and the unequal opportunity for university access has decreased.

Annual College Tuition Fees and the Proportion of Fees to Average Income Source: Retail Prices of Major Items for Ku-area in Tokyo (1950-2010), Statistics Bureau, and Survey on Wage of Private Enterprise, National Tax Agency The annual tuition fees for national universities are about 530,000 JPY (in US dollars, $4,300) in 2010. The average tuition fees for colleges of social sciences and humanities exceed 700,000 JPY (in US dollars, $5,700) in 2010. The proportions of college tuition fees to average income of general employees have increased since the latter half of 1970s.

Parentocracy? Parents have to save money for their child’s education. Some parents tend to provide their children with distinguished education to ensure their successful futures. Parents’ education strategies may affect their child’s educational attainments(Brown 1990). Early childhood intervention has impacts on the improvement of cognitive/non-cognitive skills (Heckman et al. 2013). Educational attainments are the result of an accumulation of parents’ educational strategies.

The Proportion of University Entrants/Application to Population at Age 18 Source: Report on School Basic Survey, Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology

University Admission High-stakes written test tend to be used among selective (prestigious) universities. Public universities also tend to use the written test. Non-selective universities tend to use the recommendation or the admission office system. If students use this system, they can obtain absolute promises of admittance much earlier than those who take written tests. They do not take written tests.

Qualitative Differences among Universities The recommendation system was introduced among several private universities. Among applicants who apply for selective universities, this recommendation system is rooted as an easy selection system that does not require special preparation for examination (Nakamura 2011). In globalized societies, selective universities tend to place substantial value on academic grades (Alon, 2009; Alon and Tienda, 2007). Qualitative differences among selective and non-selective universities may appear (Lucas 2001).

Hypotheses The inequality of opportunities for university attendance shrank because of relaxing competition for university admission, or remains among the younger cohorts despite the decreasing number of 18-years old. The effects of socioeconomic backgrounds and academic grades on attending selective or public universities are becoming stronger among the younger cohorts.

Data Social Stratification and Social Mobility (SSM)Survey in Japan (2005). N=5,762, Response Rate = 44.1%. Men and Women Aged from 20 to 69. Survey of Education, Social Stratification, and Social Mobility in Japan (ESSM, 2013) N=2,893, Response Rate = 60.3%. Men and Women Aged from 30 to 64. I only utilized the samples with an educational attainment of high school and over who were born after 1949.

Dependent Variables Two dependent variables with four categories. 1. ①high school ②junior college and specialized training college ③non-selective university　④selective university ※Selective universities included Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka, Hokkaido, Tohoku, Nagoya, Kyushu, Tsukuba, Chiba, Hitotsubashi, Ochanomizu Women’s University, Yokohama National, Kobe, Nara Women’s University, Hiroshima, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies, Osaka University of Foreign Studies, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Keio, Waseda, ICU, Sophia, Meiji, Rikkyo, Chuo, Gakushuin, Hosei, Tokyo University of Science, Doshisha, Ritsumeikan, Kansai, Kwansei Gakuin, and all national medical schools on the basis of social prestige and the degree of difficulty of passing entrance examinations. 2. ①high school ②junior college and specialized training college ③private university　④public university

Independent and Control Variables Socioeconomic backgrounds Father’s education (primary or secondary = 0, tertiary = 1) Father’s occupation (Erikson, Goldthorpe, and Portocarero (1979) class scheme) The number of book owned in the household at age 15 (under 100=0, over 100=1) The standard of living at age 15 (Above average=1, others=0) Academic grades (rough grade ranges among students in their class when they were in their third year of junior high school) 5-stage ordinal scale: 5 implied high (good) and 1 implied low (poor) Birth Cohort ① 1949 and 1963 (the attendance rate of university went up to about 30%); ② 1964 and 1975 (the attendance rate stagnated below 30%); ③1976 and 1985 (the attendance rate went up again) Gender

Methods Multinomial logistic regression models are estimated. Add the interactions between cohort and socioeconomic backgrounds and academic grades, and delete insignificant interaction terms. As a result, only interaction between father’s education or grades and cohorts are included in these models (the process are omitted in this presentation).

Distribution of Dependent Variables High School Junior College Non Selective Univ. Selective Total (N) 1949-63 47.9% 22.5% 24.2% 5.4 % 2324 1964-75 37.3% 31.6% 26.0% 4.7 1814 1976-85 30.1% 30.9% 33.6% 907 Total (%) 41.0% 27.3% 26.5% 5.1 5045 High School Junior College Private Univ. Public Univ. Total (N) 1949-63 47.9% 22.5% 19.8% 9.9 % 2324 1964-75 37.3% 31.6% 19.6% 11.3 1814 1976-85 30.1% 30.9% 26.1% 12.9 907 Total (%) 41.0% 27.3% 20.9% 10.8 5045

Predictive Probabilities based on Multinomial Logit Models (1) based on birth cohorts and father’s education Non-selective Universities Selective Universities

Predictive Probabilities based on Multinomial Logit Models (2) based on birth cohorts and academic grades Non-selective Universities Selective Universities

Predictive Probabilities based on Multinomial Logit Models (3) based on birth cohorts and father’s education Private Universities Public Universities

Predictive Probabilities based on Multinomial Logit Models (4) based on birth cohorts and academic grades Private Universities Public Universities

Conclusion Inequality of opportunities for universities persists, particularly for progressing on to selective universities. Generally, those who had high academic grades tended to progressed to universities among these three cohorts. It becomes difficult to enter selective universities in the younger two cohorts even if they had the highest academic grade. Non-selective and private universities contributed to the expansion of university education. In terms of attending non-selective, private, and public universities, the trend did not change among these three cohorts. Limitation Less reliable indicator of academic grades.

Acknowledgement This research was supported by Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)（numbers 15K04359) from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS). Permissions to use the SSM-Japan data and the ESSM-2103 data are obtained from the Research Committee of the SSM 2015 and the ESSM.