Arto Kokkinen ESTAT, unit C.2 Task Force on GDP Flash estimates at t+30 days GDP t+30 Eurostat results, future data work 4th Meeting of the TF, Den Haag 15-16 January, 2015 Arto Kokkinen ESTAT, unit C.2 TF T+30, June 2014

Content … Coverage: 1.1 Country data available at t+30d, three first rounds 1.2 Coverage of the country data, three first rounds 1.3 Coverage of the country data, now - future? TF T+30, June 2014

… Content 2. Results: 3. Future data work 2.1 Results – summary, first test estimates 2.2 First test estimates vs. T+65 2.3 Discussion on first test results 3. Future data work TF T+30, June 2014

1.1 Country data available at T+30d, three first rounds Of the 17 TF members 10 to 12 have been able to transmit their country estimates in the first three test rounds at t+30 d MSs already publishing at t+30 d: 2014Q1: BE, ES, LT, UK, =4 (2 in the TF) 2014Q3: BE, ES, LT, UK, AT, LV =6 (3 in the TF) TF T+30, June 2014

1.2 Coverage of the country data, three first rounds 2014Q1 EA18: 70% 8 countries EU28: 70% 13 countries 2014Q2 (ESA2010) EA18: 41% 7 countries EU28: 49% 11 countries 2014Q3 EA18: 67% 8 countries EU28: 68% 13 countries The bolded countries already publish their GDP at T+30d TF T+30, June 2014

1.3 Coverage of the country data, now - future? EU28: 14 MS data available (+ CH) TF: BG, DE, FI, IT, LT, LV, NL, PL, PT, RO, UK + AT, BE, ES 72.9% (+ FR: Q3, Q4?) (88.6%) (+ HU: transmission at t+30?) (89.3%) EA19: 10 MS data available TF: DE, FI, IT, LT, LV, NL, PT + AT, BE, ES 73.1% (+ FR: Q3, Q4?) (94.4%) TF T+30, June 2014

2.1 Results – summary, first test estimates TF T+30, June 2014

2.2 First test estimates vs. T+65 t+30d t+45d t+65d 2014Q1 EA18 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% EU28 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 2014Q2 EA18 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% EU28 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 2014Q3 EA18 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% EU28 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% TF T+30, June 2014

2.3 Discussion on first test results After three rounds the results can be considered promising The TF members have promptly transmitted their data for the on-line test estimates. We have been positively surprised on the number of countries managing to transmit their GDP test estimates already in the first test rounds We kindly thank for the country contributions ! TF T+30, June 2014

3. Future data work … Nr What When Who 1 Test calculations – ‘real time’ provision of national data every quarter from 2014Q1 onwards End-Jan 2015, end-Apr 2015, etc. Most TF Members 2 Production of EU and EA GDP test flash estimates, every quarter from 2014Q1 onwards Begin-Feb 2015, begin-May 2015, etc. ESTAT, CE 3 Test calculations – provision of national back data 2012Q1- 2013Q4 December 2014  February 2014 Most TF members 4 Test estimates for EA/EU, back data 2012Q1 – 2013Q4 Spring 2015 – Summer 2015 ESTAT, CE? TF T+30, June 2014

3. …Future data work Nr What When Who 5 Update of growth rate triangles for revision analyses – 2012-2013, 2014-2015 Spring 2015 – Summer 2015 TF Members, ESTAT 6 Revision analysis on the test estimates – 2012-2013, 2014-2015 Spring 2015 – Autumn 2015 ESTAT, WG quality 7 Calculation of data indicators and other analyses for Quality criteria (e.g. un-biasness of t+30?) Summer 2015 – Autumn 2015 TF T+30, June 2014

Thank you for your attention ! MANY THANKS FOR THE COUNTRY CONTRIBUTIONS Comments, notions from TF members: Please feel free to comment … TF T+30, June 2014