Lithuanian Experience of Counterfactual Impact Evaluation

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Presentation transcript:

Lithuanian Experience of Counterfactual Impact Evaluation Dovilė Žvalionytė Public Policy and Management Institute

What was evaluated? Context Object THE NET LONG-TERM IMPACT OF: „Evaluation of social integration services for socially vulnerable and socially excluded individuals for the effective use of the EU structural assistance for the period of 2007-2013“ commissioned by the Ministry of Social Security and Labour of the Republic of Lithuania carried out by PPMI THE NET LONG-TERM IMPACT OF: 4 ESF projects aimed at labour market integration of unemployed persons with disabilities and ex-offenders implemented during 2006-2008 by Lithuanian Labour Exchange (LLE)

The net long-term impact on what? On labour market outcomes for projects‘ participants such as: employability percentage of the participants who found jobs average number of days at work per year average earnings per year quality of jobs average daily salary

Design of control groups Definition: persons with disabilities or ex-offenders who were registered as unemployed at the LLE during 2005-2008 Qualified: 50 thousand people Selected: 3925 persons Similar to the treatment groups in socio-demographic composition (by gender, level of education and level of disability)

Data collection or breaking through the brick wall... Main ‚bricks‘: personal data protection lack of regulations on data exchange

… until special arrangement was made Important preconditions: strong institutional relations easily accessible data (electronic databases)

Methodology: difference-in-difference Assumption of parallelism: in the absence of the intervention the labour market outcomes for the participants of the projects (treatment group) would continue to follow the same trajectory of changes as the labour market outcomes for the non-participants (control group).

What do we know better now? ESF SUPPORT… affected positively: probability of socially vulnerable people entering into employment, length of their employment; and average early income; had no significant impact towards the quality of employment; made bigger net long-term impact on the persons with disabilities than on the ex-offenders; produced greater net long-term effect through subsidized works than through vocational training.