Washington State Employment Security Department

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Presentation transcript:

Washington State Employment Security Department Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Cynthia Forland, CIO and Assistant Commissioner Workforce Information and Technology Services Employment Security Advisory Council April 25, 2018

Unemployment benefit payments Source: Employment Security Department, March 2011 UI Trust Fund Forecast, 5/23/2011 Source: Employment Security Department, March 2011 UI Trust Fund Forecast, 5/23/2011 Unemployment Rate by % February 2018 2017 4.62% 2018 4.34% 2019 4.06% 4.11% 4.13% 4.21% Overall, Cumulative Projected benefit payments increase steadily between 2018 and 2023 (+$204.2m). Source: Employment Security Department/WITS, February 2018 UI Trust Fund Forecast

Average duration of benefits Source: Employment Security Department, March 2011 UI Trust Fund Forecast, 5/23/2011 Source: Employment Security Department, March 2011 UI Trust Fund Forecast, 5/23/2011 Average duration of benefits Average duration of benefits is currently at 14.7 weeks (February 2018) Source: Employment Security Department/WITS; U.S. Department of Labor, ETA 5159

Source: Employment Security Department, March 2011 UI Trust Fund Forecast, 5/23/2011 Unemployment taxes Projected Overall Experience Tax Collections for 2018-2023 are projected to fall by $24.6m Overall Social Tax Collections for 2018-2023 are projected to increase by $20.5m Source: Employment Security Department/WITS, February 2018 UI Trust Fund Forecast

Historical and projected UI tax rates 2020: 0.85% 1986: 4.03% 1996: 1.88% 2016: 1.20% Source: Employment Security Department/WITS; U.S. Department of Labor, ETA, UI data summary handbook

State rankings on average UI tax rate Based upon the UI tax rate on total wages as of 2017 Q 4 Source: US Department of Labor; UI Data Summary – Average Tax Rate on Total Wages Source: Employment Security Department/WITS; U.S. Department of Labor, ETA, UI data summary handbook

Unemployment trust fund balance & months of benefits MOB from the February 2018 forecast: 2018 – 16.6 MOB 2019 – 16.6 MOB 2020 – 16.5 MOB 2021 – 16.5 MOB 2022 – 16.3 MOB 2023 – 16.3 MOB Source: Employment Security Department/WITS, February 2018 UI Trust Fund Forecast

UI trust fund solvency Great Recession posed most serious challenge to UI financing in the system’s history 36 states borrowed from the U.S. Treasury to pay UI benefits from 2009 through 2013, totaling $93 billion Employers in states with federal loans were faced with risk of increased federal FUTA taxes Washington state’s UI trust fund went from a balance of $4 billion at the start of the recession to a balance of $2.3 billion at the end of 2013, allowing us to continue paying benefits without borrowing federal funds After a state has passed two January 1’s with an outstanding loan in each successive year it will begin to lose a portion of its FUTA credit which will go towards repayment of the loan.

Any questions? Cynthia Forland CIO and Assistant Commissioner Workforce Information and Technology Services Employment Security Department (360) 507-9501 CForland@esd.wa.gov