Urban Security in the 21st Century DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFORMATION AND IMPLICATIONS ON SECURITY Defence Seminar, Colombo, 2018 Urban Security in the 21st Century by Dr Lauren Twort Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)

The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) Founded in 1831 by the Duke of Wellington, to… Inform Influence Enhance public debate on a safer and more stable world

Context Especially after 9/11, the critical roles of cities were revealed as key strategic sites of military, economic, cultural and representational struggle. Source: Graham, S (2002) ‘Reflections on Cities, September 11th and the ‘War on Terrorism’— One Year On’, International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 26(3): 589-590.

Urban population: 1950 Source: UNICEF

Urban population: 2000 Source: UNICEF

Urban population: 2050 Source: UNICEF

Factors leading to urban population growth: Population growth

Factors leading to urban population growth: Rural-urban migration

What is Urban Security? Urban Security Urban Planning Urban Resilience Shift from military security human security Maintenance day-to-day community activities and functions of society. Disaster management, low-probability, high impact events. Urban Security Resilience as proactive rather than reactive. Urban Planning Urban Resilience Protection of people is associated with protection of national security

Range of threats to urban security Natural hazards Urban violence Human-induced threats tsunami Industrial pollution Open armed conflict Endemic community violence Organized crime Anomic crime landslide wildfire hurricanes Toxic waste Environmental degradation flooding drought Some exacerbated by climate change earthquake terrorism cybercrime

Case study: Sri Lanka Hazard Profile: Floods, landslides, drought, coastal erosion etc 2018- floods and landslides- affected 19 districts, killed at least 21 people, 400,000 displaced, spread of flu, dengue, cholera. 2017, affected 15 districts, at least 209 killed, with 600,000 persons affected. Between the years 2007-2011, government expenditure on food aid and relief supporting expenses due to natural disasters exceeded RS. 1.7 billion (National Disaster Relief Services Centre). Industrial activity was also disrupted in 2016 with factories hit by floods.

Economic losses Sri Lanka has been hit by economic losses equivalent 0.2 percent of its GDP over a 20- year period due to natural disasters 1997-2016. Meanwhile, the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS), has said that the cost of natural disasters on Sri Lanka’s economy amounted to 1 percent of GDP in 2017 alone. Important steps are being taken to implement Sri Lanka’s urban vision  Recognised need to improve resilience and social preparedness Capture lessons learned Bob Buhr (2018) “Climate Change and the Cost of Capital in Developing Countries: Assessing the impact of climate risks on sovereign borrowing costs”

Threats aimed at cities in 21st century Terrorism Cyber threats

Urban Warfare

Ways Forward: Big Picture BIG PICTURE- New Urban Agenda (2016) National urban policies Stronger urban governance Reinvigorated "long-term and integrated urban and territorial planning and design Effective financing frameworks

Ways Forward: National level Multi hazard/risk approach and transdisciplinary working Diversifying capabilities for risk assessment and improving inter-agency collaborations. Authorities must become institutionally adaptable Better data collection, research and exchange of best practices. Consider risks in a holistic fashion

Ways Forward: Local/Community Level Most tools are targeted to experts and decisionmakers with only a few addressing citizen capabilities The importance of soft tools- changing social, political and economic conventions are often as crucial to the success of city resilience as upgrading physical assets Shift away from centralised state protection to encouraging citizens to take measures. Shared responsibility between governments, private sector and members of civil society will become imperative for maintenance of urban security and disaster management.

Concluding Thought How urban public safety is handled in the 21st century will determine citizens’ perceptions of the accountability and effectiveness of the state in upholding the social contract with its citizens. - Safe in the City: Urban spaces are the new frontier for international security by Vanda Felbab-Brown