Introduction and History Transportation Demand Analysis Introduction and History Introduction and History Meeghat Habibian

Remember from Transportation Planning Transportation Demand Analysis Introduction and History Remember from Transportation Planning Meeghat Habibian

Facts Activities in different land uses  Necessity of transportation Complexity of transportation  Complexity of analysis method  Necessity of transportation planning Transportation Demand Analysis – Introduction and History

Demand Concept The “need” to transportation of a/an society/individual Note: The difference between demand and volume Demand function: Different levels of volume according to different levels of service (i.e., A function relates levels of service to volumes) Economic approach: Demand is the consumption rates at different levels of cost. Traffic volume ≡ Consumption rate Level of service ≡ Cost Transportation Demand Analysis – Introduction and History

Demand Analysis Exploring relationships between the need to transportation and effective factors (e.g., socio-economic factors) The process is performed through a structure known as “model” Modeling: How to explore the aforementioned relationship Transportation Demand Analysis – Introduction and History

History of Demand Analysis Transportation Demand Analysis Introduction and History History of Demand Analysis Meeghat Habibian

History of Demand Analysis (before 1950) Kohl, 1850: Resources distribution and transportation network Ravenstein, 1885: Gravity model for intercity migration Lille, 1891: Analysis of rail network design Reilly, 1929: Effect of retail attraction on urban movements Stewart, 1948: Demographic gravitation Stouffer, 1940: Spatial interaction of land uses Zipf, 1946: Appling Gravity model for urban transportation Transportation Demand Analysis – Introduction and History

History of Demand Analysis (1950-1980) Role of land use on transportation (e.g., Mitchell & Rapkin,1954) Applying “microeconomic theory” in Transportation demand (Beckmann, Mc. Guire and Winsten, 1956) Developing consumer theory in Transportation demand Introduction of behavioral approach (Utility or Satisfaction) Developing choice theory (Destination, Mode and Route) Transportation Demand Analysis – Introduction and History

History of Demand Analysis (after 1980) Integration of demand and land use models Appling developments of “microeconomic theory” Considering socio-economic activities in demand modeling Considering attitudes as a reason for behavior Adopting statistics and probability science Assuming behavior as a stochastic issue Developing the concept of heterogeneity Transportation Demand Analysis – Introduction and History

Demand Analysis at Present Transportation Demand Analysis Introduction and History Demand Analysis at Present Meeghat Habibian

New Role of Demand Analysis in TP Policy making approach (TDM and TSM) Estimation of economic effects on demand (e.g., fuel cost, …) Adjusting demand to meet supply limitations Assumption I: People are aware of transportation cost Assumption II: People are aware of transportation externalities Transportation Demand Analysis – Introduction and History

New analytical methods Considering time budget in daily trips Hagerstrand theory Trip chaining approach Activity based approach Transportation Demand Analysis – Introduction and History

Developments in analytical abilities Causes: Development of behavioral model Improvements in statistical methods (e.g., MLE,…) Decrease in size of transportation databanks Developments in computers and computation Transportation Demand Analysis – Introduction and History

Transportation Demand Analysis – Introduction and History Finish