10. Educational Challenges. Projecting the Future. Intelligent Information Systems 10. Educational Challenges. Projecting the Future. Gio Wiederhold EPFL, April-June 2000, at 14:15 - 15:15, room INJ 218

Schedule Presentations in English -- but I'll try to manage discussions in French and/or German. I plan to cover the material in an integrating fashion, drawing from concepts in databases, artificial intelligence, software engineering, and business principles. 1. 13/4 Historical background, enabling technology:ARPA, Internet, DB, OO, AI., IR 2. 27/4 Search engines and methods (recall, precision, overload, semantic problems). 3. 4/5 Digital libraries, information resources. Value of services, copyright. 4. 11/5 E-commerce. Client-servers. Portals. Payment mechanisms, dynamic pricing. 5. 19/5 Mediated systems. Functions, interfaces, and standards. Intelligence in processing. Role of humans and automation, maintenance. 6. 26/5 Software composition. Distribution of functions. Parallelism. [ww D.Beringer] 7. 31/5 Application to Bioinformatics. 8. 15/6 Semantic Interoperation 9. 22/6 Privacy protection and security. Security mediation. 10.29/6 Educational challenges. Expected changes in teaching and learning. Summary and projection for the future. Feedback and comments are appreciated. 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

Topics for discussion Education Libraries New services -- decision support Consumer usage (B2C) Business-to-Business usage (B2B) Technology Transfer in each case Potential Hindrances Solutions? 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

Future Risky Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible. observed initial expectation rational base Risky Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible. Radio has no future. X-rays will prove to be hoax. [Willliam Thomson, Lord Kelvin, 1824-1907]. Nothing is harder to predict than the future [Yogi Berra] The shape of the future is easier to predict than the time of its arrival 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

Education vs Training Web enables remote education and training: Will both be affected the same way? Training is best scheduled as needed often low student/teacher ratio life-time need Education is prescheduled often high student/teacher ratio initial, becoming a life-time need 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

Stonebraker Remarks 21jun2000 Research Crisis PhD students (and current profs) are going to dot.coms. University Texas has now only one PhD student/faculty. Every University has its head in the sand wrt. distance learning. Second-level University profs will become second-level TAs. Good, Ivy-league Profs. will create content, professionals, as Dan Rathers of teaching. Center of research funding is now on SandHillRoad, Menlo Park (VCs), not Arlington VA (NSF). Best paper at SIGMOD dealt with XML encoding. 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

Stanford Model Based on TV courses offered to industry in operation since 1975, analyzed & updated Part of normal curriculum TV operator in special classroom shows notes (must be legible), blackboard, teacher tutor at remote site (has taken class earlier) voice reverse link for questions (if live TV) Can be replayed on web in students rooms, … morning classes getting to be empty 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

Threat to smaller schools Alternatives Overloaded professor with older material Inaccessible professor with up-to-date material technology from the entertainment industry Education / Training when and where wanted Role for Tutors at remote sites old British university model: Tutors, Readers 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

Modes Major E-schools increase enrollment remote sites - CMU-Silicon Valley Major E-schools engage existing schools as subsidiaries Major E-schools sell material to other schools: videos + guides Major E-schools sell material to new education vendors 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

E-libraries When books were rare, libraries were created by the monks who copied books Today available material exceeds storage capabilities of the largest libraries Readership / book is declining Hence: electronic distribution from holding sites Bibliotheque de France: 100 000 canonical works British National Libraries: current collections Library of Congress: remote model, index Switzerland? 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

Added Value of a Library Virtually everything we have is in the public domain. Our value added is not communications. It is not hardware. It is not even the data. Our Value added is the categorization, the storage, and the archiving of data, which gives the tools to search the data, to project it, compare it, chart it, and so on. Our strategy is to be a high-margin, low-volume producer for a specialized market. [Michael R. Blomberg, in Wired April 1998] 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

E-libraries www.TeleRead.org Public libraries (funded in the U.S. by Dale Carnegie) have been of major benefit to children and older people who wanted to improve themselves Libraries and librarians are under budget pressures Older voters do not support education In an E-world at least augment paper libraries Proposal [Rothman@clark.net] free E-libraries using Internet and e-books Contents Books in public domain Popular books; suggestion that their copyrights be donated by their authors after initial sales reduce -- ~1-2 years 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

Move to Multimedia New generation is becomIng more visual now 3M US MMemail users, by 2005 60M Linkage of entertainment and education > hinteractive textbooks simulations with formulas live observation in geography . . . 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

E-Commerce Trends 1998/1999/ ... Users of the Internet 40% Ü 52% of U.S. population Growth of Net Sites (now 2.2M public sites with 288M pages) Expected growth in E-commerce by Internet users [BW, 6 Sep.1999] segment 1998 1999 books 7.2% Ü 16.0% music & video 6.3% Ü 16.4% toys 3.1% Ü 10.3% travel 2.6% Ü 4.0% tickets 1.4% Ü 4.2% Overall 8.0% Ü 33.0% = $9.5Billion Will change all retail businesses, when? An unstainable trend cannot be sustained [Herbert Stein] Ü new services 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 0.3 1 3 9 27 81 ** 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Year / % Ü % Ü E-penetration Toys Centroid, in 1999 ~1% of total market 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

New Services Integration with better precision Added-value services Semantics, contexts, specialization Added-value services maintained mediators accessed initially via portals balance portals / specialists? B2B market is 3 x B2C market requires more precision can afford to miss inconsistent suppliers 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

Government use Better communication with customers Fewer problems with bureaucrats authentication of public? Justifies Library access Encourages public Internet use [www.economist.com … survey] 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

New Role for Consultants Old Used at Design Time and To Explain Failures Future Available as a Service Responsible for Knowledge Maintenance 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

B2B Services Tactical Customers Inventory Suppliers Information Leverage requires a sharable format Strategic Planning Capabilities Opportunities 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

XML replaces EDI ? Future Machine processable and readable ! return to origin? ARPAnet -- share heterogeneous machines Email -- people-to-people Digital Library -- people-to-machines E-commerce (E2B)-- people-to-machines client-server Internet -- share heterogeneous data Mediated -- people-to-services-to-machines Business (B2B)-- machine-to-machine(s) Business services -- machine-to-services-to-machines Ubiquitous -- gadget-to-gadget (embedded) Future 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

DBMSs will serve XML XML will help in use of DBs on the web. HTML is wild and wooly, oriented towards flexible human processing For B2B applications interpretation will be by processing programs. Programs cannot exploit flexibility. Data requirements remain regular Freeware will be available 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

Relevant Examples? Browsing for papers and authors Supplier catalog human searching flexible contents recursive, cyclic, linked structures Supplier catalog some number of required entries some predefined optional entries further, arbitrary entries are ignored. 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

Needed features from DBMSs Rapid retrieval Ü indexing indexes best derived from regular structures Optimization Ü quantity estimates best attached to schemas, Business integrity ÜTx integrity fine-grained, routinely provided by DBMSs. Access control Ü constraint rules attached to schema attributes and keys 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

Will RDBMs adapt to XML? Changes will be needed for XML correctness Ordering, - cross refs., - document snippets, ... Pressure from customers Experience from OO-developments Inadequate rethinking Rigid internal structure Staff with performance-oriented experience XML-specialists mis-focusing on output forms 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

Planning requires the Future time past now future Msg systems, sensors Databases, accessed via SQL or CORBA compliant wrappers Simulations, accessed via SimQL and compliant wrappers Point for Decision-Making 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

Current state of DM Support organized support disjointed support past now future time Data integration distributed, heterogeneous x17 @qbfera ffga 67 .78 jjkl,a nsnd nn 23.5a Databases Intuition + Spreadsheets Spreadsheets Planning of allocations Other simulations various point assessments 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

DM support does not interoperate Databases Planning Science Simulation Distribution extensions to move to networked support are also disjoint 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

Language Sketch SQL What was the weather in Chicago yesterday? SELECT temperature, …, WHERE place = `CHICAGO’ AND date = 8Sep1998 Temperature = 71 SimQL What will the weather be in Chicago tomorow? ESTIMATE temperature, …, WHERE place = `CHICAGO’ AND date = 10Sep1998 Temperature = 71, p=.8

SimQL: Stanford experiment Logistics Application Manufacturing Application SimQL access SimQL access SimQL access SQL access Weather (short-, long-term) wrapper wrapper wrapper wrapper Engineering Spreadsheets Test Data

SimQL Prototype implementation Parser Metadata Manager Query manager Schema Wrapped .. Simulations Development Interaction Production Filing of Access Specs Use of Access Initiation and Results of Simulations Commands Help Error reports Interface customer Interface developer

Use of Simulation Results Simulation results can be composed for alternative Courses-of-actions (CoAs) Composition should be seamless, elegant, with computation and recomputation of likelihoods, values (derived from endpoints) Results change as now moves forwards and eliminates earlier alternatives. Pruning needed of low-probability CoAs Planning Science 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

Moving to a Service Paradigm Server is an independent contractor, defines service Client selects service, and specifies parameters Server’s success depends on value provided Some form of payment received for services x,y Databases are a current example. Simulations have the same potential. 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

Outsourcing Communication, web simplifies outsourcing of information support functions -- if functions are critical high risk for Co. + if functions are support, helps focus of Co. > Internal IS departments are viewed with disdain by upper management (75%) incapable of dealing with E-commerce cant attract good people only tactical, no strategic views . [CIO Magzine 15June 2000] 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

Technology Transition . Economic drivers have to be considered. Three party model Industry: need-based invention academia: formalization innovators: new technology New Service models provide new Opportunities supply innovative tools to industry supply specialized information to industry I i a 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

Research economy transfer paths Tool suppliers (TS) versus Product suppliers (PS) high-value modest volume Customers Research Government Teaching Taxes high volume people results Products 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

Understanding the other parties Motivation is profit and loss-avoidance in: Industry: investment -- payoff to stockholders / retain value / stable Academia: prestige -- (leads to continuing funding) visibility, not stability or reliability Innovative businesses: leverage -- not sustainable low downside cost, high upside risk, change expected and needed Government research: technology dissemination & shelving service ? 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

Notes from Stanford OTL Stanford University has right to Intellectual property for most contracts, employees, faculty. Inventions are reported to Office of Technology Licensing Evaluated for originality Evaluated for economic potential If rejected returned to inventor If accepted, protected (patent, trademark , …) & marketed Proceeds go 1/3 to Stanford, 1/3 department, 1/3 inventor 31 % licensed / 29% waiting, 40%dropped Large companies poor adopters, best are exclusive to startups Option: overall license, pay once + small annual SOE gets base, some fro depts. Inventor gets license fees. objective is better relationships.to large companies not suitable for startups, small companies 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

Expect continuing Internet growth Hardware technology will continue to lead and encourage broader usage Communication technology will continue to lead and become more economical User interfaces will improve and not be a barrier to the acceptance of technology Government policies will not hinder open interaction - or not be able to 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

Integration Science Artificial Intelligence knowledge mgmt models uncertainty Databases access storage algebras Systems Engineering analysis documentation costing Integration Science 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

F i n Comments? what was new / what was old or boring? future emphasis more technological detail? more situational detail? more extrapolation to the future 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

Operating Systems Less choice, less heterogeneity Microsoft Windows, personal computer and WS. proprietary product, no obligations to hardware, rapidly adapted to new requirements UNIX, an open systems, consensus, takes time. SUN servers, other proprietary induce inconsistency LINUX clients and servers, free, low entry cost new business models Mainframe operating systems, little growth expected VMS (COMPAQ) surviving = reliable 24 hour / 7 day ! 2/23/2019 EPFL10future

Projects at Stanford DB group Data Mining. Mediator, Wrapper Generation. Semantic Matching. Warehousing. Security Mediators. Megaprogramming. Simulation Access. Changes, Consistency, and Configurations. Digital Libraries MIDAS WHIPS SKC TIHI-TID TSIMMIS SimQL CHAIMS C3 2/23/2019 EPFL10future