Corn Market Outlook Midwest/Great Plains Outlook Conference Indianapolis, Indiana Aug. 14, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2 97.4 Yield (bu./acre) 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4 154.4 Production (mil. bu.) 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,780 13,763 Beg. Stocks 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 719 Imports 8 28 29 165 30 Total Supply 14,774 14,182 13,516 11,934 14,512 Feed & Residual 5,125 4,795 4,545 4,450 5,100 Ethanol 4,591 5,019 5,011 4,650 4,900 Food, Seed, & Other 1,370 1,407 1,428 1,400 1,450 Exports 1,980 1,834 1,543 715 1,225 Total Use 13,066 13,055 12,527 11,215 12,675 Ending Stocks 710 1,837 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.55 5.18 6.22 6.95 4.90 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

Corn Crop Rating Source: USDA-NASS

Objective Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS

Projected Corn Yields Source: USDA-NASS

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Ethanol Stocks

Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

Current Corn Futures 4.61 4.54 4.34 Source: CME Group, 8/12/2013

New Crop Prices

Corn Prices vs. Costs

Corn Crop Rating Source: USDA-NASS

IA Corn Yield Estimate - Conditions

US Corn Yield Estimate - Conditions

3 Month Outlook - Temps

Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond Supply/demand concerns Can the new crop beat the summer heat? So far, so good Then can it beat the freeze? New crop ratings are decent, Eastern vs. Western Corn Belt Corn demand rebounding? 2012/13 USDA 2013/14 USDA 2013/14 Futures (8/12/13) Corn $6.95 $4.90 $4.34

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/