Corn Market Outlook Midwest/Great Plains Outlook Conference Indianapolis, Indiana Aug. 14, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1
U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2 97.4 Yield (bu./acre) 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4 154.4 Production (mil. bu.) 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,780 13,763 Beg. Stocks 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 719 Imports 8 28 29 165 30 Total Supply 14,774 14,182 13,516 11,934 14,512 Feed & Residual 5,125 4,795 4,545 4,450 5,100 Ethanol 4,591 5,019 5,011 4,650 4,900 Food, Seed, & Other 1,370 1,407 1,428 1,400 1,450 Exports 1,980 1,834 1,543 715 1,225 Total Use 13,066 13,055 12,527 11,215 12,675 Ending Stocks 710 1,837 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.55 5.18 6.22 6.95 4.90 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2
Corn Crop Rating Source: USDA-NASS
Objective Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS
Projected Corn Yields Source: USDA-NASS
World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6
U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7
Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
Corn Grind for Ethanol
Ethanol Stocks
Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook
Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook
Current Corn Futures 4.61 4.54 4.34 Source: CME Group, 8/12/2013
New Crop Prices
Corn Prices vs. Costs
Corn Crop Rating Source: USDA-NASS
IA Corn Yield Estimate - Conditions
US Corn Yield Estimate - Conditions
3 Month Outlook - Temps
Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond Supply/demand concerns Can the new crop beat the summer heat? So far, so good Then can it beat the freeze? New crop ratings are decent, Eastern vs. Western Corn Belt Corn demand rebounding? 2012/13 USDA 2013/14 USDA 2013/14 Futures (8/12/13) Corn $6.95 $4.90 $4.34
Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/