Developing and Using a Spatial Model of Yellow-billed Cuckoo Breeding Habitat for the State of Idaho Matthew J. Johnson & Jennifer A. Holmes, Northern Arizona University, Colorado Plateau Research Station, Flagstaff, Arizona; James R. Hatten, U.S. Geological Survey, Western Fisheries Research Center, Columbia River Research Laboratory, Cook, Washington Characterize Yellow-billed Cuckoo breeding habitat through modeling Develop spatially explicit models of cuckoo breeding habitat by applying the predictive model to specific landscapes - Idaho Use the spatial models to enhance effectiveness of cuckoo monitoring and prioritize areas for habitat conservation and restoration These are the project objectives

Applied the model to ID study area Probability grids- each 30x30 m cell has a probability calculated using the model’s logistic regression equation Spatially explicit maps- display probabilities (from 0 - 99.9%) across the study area Multiple classification approaches- binary habitat-not habitat map (used a 40% threshold: > 40% probability = 1 = habitat and < 40% = 0 = not habitat These do not account for the area or “patch size” of habitat at a specific location We applied a YBCU habitat model that was developed using satellite-based data (NDVI & DEM) on the lower Colorado River to the Snake River study area. Model outputs include spatially explicit maps that show the probability, from 0-99% that each 30x30 m cell is YBCU habitat (depicted in the top map). Can reclassify probabilities into different categories, including applying a threshold (in this case a 40% threshold) where everything below the threshold is not considered habitat, and everything above is considered habitat- this produces a binary map (depicted in the bottom map). But we know that YBCU need large patches of habitat and it can be difficult to assess patch sizes from these maps. Binary Habitat Map

Primary Project Objective to identify areas that are likely cuckoo habitat for further surveys We further analyzed the binary map data, to measure area of habitat Used the binary habitat map & Spatial Analyst Neighborhood Tool to calculate the amount of habitat cells within a 480 m radius (72 ha) surrounding each 30x30m cell in the study area To assess patch sizes/area of habitat we conducted further analysis. We took the binary (habitat/non-habitat) map and used spatial analyst tools to calculate the amount of habitat within a 480 m radius/72 ha surrounding each cell. Our previous modeling told us that 72 ha/480 m radius was a significant patch size for YBCU. This figure shows an example for how the neighborhood around a cell is calculated-the number of green (habitat) cells within 480 m is summed and that value is entered into the cell. So every 30x30 cell has information about how much YBCU habitat surrounds it.

Identifying Priority Areas for Surveys Mapped patches of habitat across the study area Measured patch sizes Prioritized sites for YBCU surveys; larger patches have higher priority You end up with a map that shows cells with large amounts habitat around it (blue is highest) down to zero (dark orange), for the entire study area. On the left shows most of the study area; the right is zoomed in and you can see larger patches of habitat and smaller ones. We measured patch size by measuring the approximate length of the blue patches. We then prioritized YBCU surveys sites by size, with the larger patches receiving higher priority.

Identifying Priority Areas for Surveys We overlaid historic cuckoo records onto the prioritized map that spatially depicts the amount of habitat with 450 m (72 ha) Cuckoo locations (black dots) fell within the highest quality areas (blue) We also overlaid historic YBCU detections with the patch size maps and YBCU locations (the black dots) fell within that largest patches/high habitat quality areas.

Further Work Continued ground-truthing YBCU surveys (following protocol) needed in the priority areas Apply model across the rest of the state (at least s. Idaho) Conduct analysis to identify priority habitat for the rest of the state Now that we have identified potentially high quality areas, YBCU surveys, conducted using the protocol, need to be done in these areas to verify our results. 4 surveys/site need to be conducted within the survey season. The model should be applied over the rest of Idaho, and analysis of patch size conducted to identify potential YBCU habitat for the rest of the state.