Comparison of the Swedish NC3 and CAFE baseline projections

Country perspectives Swedish energy policy objectives: A secure, efficient and environmentally friendly energy supply Mainly market based instruments Kyoto targets likely to be reached with current policies (Kyoto target +4%, national goal -4%) Liberalisation of electricity market

National peculiarities Large portion of power production with limited carbon dioxide emissions Nuclear phase-out and restricted large-scale hydropower Restricted natural gas capacity Energy intensive industry Long distances A lot of electricity used for space heating

Comparison: Drivers GDP significantly lower in NC3: GDP increase 1,1% 2010-2020, because of demographic structure: decreasing working population Price development of gas and coal considered higher in NC3.

Situation in 2000 Sum of residential and tertial sector 6 TWh higher in NC3 Industry OK Very different figures for passenger aviation and inland navigation - must be differences in definition Inland navigation large discrepancies for freight transports

Energy projections Natural gas: restriction in capacity Sum of residential and tertiary sector 12-17 TWH higher in NC3 “Green certificates” included in CAFE baseline?

Transport projections Still differences in definitions for inland navigation and train, plus Large discrepancies for passenger train transport and road transport For freight transports, train transport and inland navigation very different