An overview of the status of food and nutrition security in Somalia Mohamed Ali Ismail Permanent Secretary & Mohamud Yasin Artan Director of Food Security and Early Warning Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation, Somalia

Introduction The agriculture sector is the backbone of the Somali economy. Agriculture’s share of GDP has risen significantly from its prewar level of about 62 percent to possibly 75 percent or even higher. In the early 2010s, agricultural exports represented 93 percent of the country’s total exports, down from about 95 percent prewar. The agriculture sector has a crucial role in ensuring food security, job creation, and income generation and foreign exchange earnings. Recent estimates suggest a dramatic expansion of the relative economic importance for Somalia of livestock.

Introduction About 49 percent of the population still lives in rural areas, and about 46 percent of employed people work in agriculture (25 percent in crops cultivation, 9 percent in herding, 4 percent in fishing, and 7 percent in other related activities). Agricultural exports have climbed every year since the late 2000s, to a peak in 2015 of $634 million, more than five times the value before the civil war, thanks to livestock exports, which rose by a factor of almost 10 since the late 1980s. Sesame exports are Somalia’s second-largest export. They reached an historical peak of $40 million in 2014 before falling 15 percent in 2015. The agriculture sector is therefore a key in addressing poverty and food insecurity.

Current situation of Food Security The Gu rainy season started earlier than usual in late March and rainfall totals were well above-average through mid-May. In riverine areas, floods damaged irrigation and infrastructure and destroyed an estimated 40,000 hectares (ha) of farmland in Southern Somalia. Although crops are developing normally in all other riverine areas, the area under cultivation for July Gu crops is below average in riverine areas overall. In rainfed agricultural and agropastoral livelihood zones, above- average Gu rainfall has been beneficial for crop development and the area planted is average or above average. In Northwest Agropastoral livelihood zone, the first round of short- cycle maize cultivation is below normal due to the late start of Gu rainfall, though planting of long-cycle sorghum was normal.

Current situation of Food Security Currently (Jul 2018), there are nearly 5.0 million people in need across Somalia. This includes, approximately 1.8 million in Crisis or worse. Over 4.6 million people will be in need across Somalia from Aug to Dec 2018. This includes, over 1.5 million facing acute food security Crisis or worse; IDPs represent 57 percent of the 1.5 million. The projection figures reflect the expected improvement in the food security situation between now and Dec 2018

Seasonal calendar for a typical year

2018 Gu: Increased Vegetation Cover

Market Update Consumer Price Index (CPI) mildly changed (by 2-6%) in June 2018. Similarly, the CPI declined (by 1-17%) annually due to decreases in cereal prices.

Local cereal The prices of local cereal changed mildly (less than +/- 10%) in most regions of the country compared to last month. Annual comparison indicates lower prices in most regions due to increased supply as a result of improved cereal production compared to a year ago (June 2017).

Imported food The prices of imported food (rice, sugar, vegetable oil, wheat flour) mostly exhibited relative stability or mild monthly changes (less than +/-10%) in local currency terms in June 2018 against preceding months across the country. Similarly, compared to one year ago, prices exhibited mild changes (mostly increases) in most of the southern and central regions for most food imports. For most of northern regions, prices of most food imports increased compared to a year ago due to depreciation of local currency against USD.

Total Cereal Imports (Berbera, Bossaso and Mogadishu)

Terms of Trade The terms of Trade (ToT) between daily labor wage and cereals remained relatively stable or changed mildly in most regions of the country compared to last month. Annual comparison indicates higher ToT between daily labor and cereals in most regions due to increases in labor wages and/or decrease  in cereal prices. The ToT between local quality goat and cereals mostly exhibited mild changes (+/- 1-10%) in most regions of the country compared to last month. Compared to a year ago (June 2017), the ToT between goat and cereals were higher across the country due to increased goat prices and/or decrease in cereal prices.

Labor Wages of labor (unskilled) changed mildly (by less than +/-10%) compared to last month in most regions of the country. Compared to a year ago (June 2017), labor wages exhibited increases in most regions of the country due to improved agricultural labor opportunities as a result of improved rainfall performance compared to last year.

Livestock Livestock prices for local quality goat and camel exhibited mild changes (less than +/- 10%) in most regions compared to last month. Compared to a year ago (June 2017), most regions exhibited increases in goat and camel prices due to improved body conditions as a result of better rainfall performance this year which increased water availability and pasture. Milk prices (camel and cattle) exhibited mild declines in most regions of the country compared to June 2018 due to increased supply as a result of increased availability of water and pasture. On the other hand, milk prices (mainly camel) increased from moderate to high when compared to last year in most regions of the country due to less milk supply because of low camel calving.

Current situation of Nutrition Security Overall, level of acute malnutrition at national level has improved to Serious in the current Gu 2018 (median GAM of 14.0%) from Critical in Gu 2017 (median GAM of 17.4%). There are no improvement in the overall current acute malnutrition prevalence compared to Deyr 2017/18 (median GAM of 13.8%). The corresponding median SAM prevalence are: 2.2% (Gu 2018), 1.9% (Deyr 2017/18) and 3.2% (Gu 2017). Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) prevalence is Critical (15-29.9%) in 12 out of 33 populations surveyed. Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) prevalence is Critical (≥4-5.6) only among Mogadishu IDPs and Guban pastoral livelihood. Morbidity rates are high( >20 %) in many parts of the country but highest among population groups in the northeast and central.

Key Messages on Nutrition The overall nutrition situation in Somalia has continued to improve due to a combination of improved food security conditions, reduced outbreak of diseases and sustained humanitarian interventions. However, high level of acute malnutrition tends to persist in several population groups due to underlying/structural causes The estimated number of children under the age of 6-59 months that are acutely malnourished at the time of the assessment (Jun/Jul 2018) is 226,300, including 42,500 who are severely malnourished (prevalence estimate). Between August and December 2018 an estimated 294,200 children will face acute malnutrition, including 55,200 who are likely to be severely malnourished (total acute malnutrition burden for Aug-Dec 2018)

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