Regional contributions of six preventable risk factors to achieving the 25 × 25 non- communicable disease mortality reduction target: a modelling study  Vasilis Kontis, PhD, Colin D Mathers, PhD, Prof Ruth Bonita, PhD, Gretchen A Stevens, DSc, Prof Jürgen Rehm, PhD, Kevin D Shield, PhD, Leanne M Riley, MSc, Vladimir Poznyak, MD, Samer Jabbour, MD, Renu Madanlal Garg, MD, Anselm Hennis, MD, Heba M Fouad, MD, Prof Robert Beaglehole, DSc, Prof Majid Ezzati, FMedSci  The Lancet Global Health  Volume 3, Issue 12, Pages e746-e757 (December 2015) DOI: 10.1016/S2214-109X(15)00179-5 Copyright © 2015 Kontis et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Business-as-usual trends in the probability of dying from the four main non-communicable diseases (NCDs) between ages 30 years and 70 years and trends if risk factors are reduced according to their targets for WHO regions The results for the combination of all risk factors account for multicausality and for mediation as described in Methods. See the appendix for results by regions based on income and geography. The Lancet Global Health 2015 3, e746-e757DOI: (10.1016/S2214-109X(15)00179-5) Copyright © 2015 Kontis et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Number of deaths from the main non-communicable diseases (NCDs) among those aged 30–69 years and 70 years or older (A) Number of deaths from the main NCDs among those aged 30–69 years and 70 years or older in 2010 and in 2025 at 2010 death rate under the business-as-usual scenario if the six risk factors are reduced according to their targets and if a more ambitious target on tobacco use is achieved for WHO regions. (B) Same information as (A) after subtracting the number of deaths in 2010. See the appendix for results by regions based on income and geography. The Lancet Global Health 2015 3, e746-e757DOI: (10.1016/S2214-109X(15)00179-5) Copyright © 2015 Kontis et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY Terms and Conditions

Figure 3 Ranking of the risk factor targets by region and by their contribution towards achieving the 25 × 25 mortality reduction target for WHO regions A rank of 1 corresponds to the largest contribution. See appendix for results by regions based on income and geography. The Lancet Global Health 2015 3, e746-e757DOI: (10.1016/S2214-109X(15)00179-5) Copyright © 2015 Kontis et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY Terms and Conditions