Drivers Influencing Weather-related NAS Metrics Randy Bass FAA – Aviation Weather Research Program August 2, 2016

Weather Data Collection and Analysis Forecast Communication The Weather Support “Process” Feedback Weather Data Collection and Analysis Weather Forecast Forecast Translation Forecast Communication Forecast Reception Operational Decision

Weather Data Collection and Analysis Some Considerations Weather Data Collection and Analysis Weather Forecast Forecast Translation Communication Reception Operational Decision Lack of observations Human factors Interpretation Training Detection Timeliness Experience Accuracy Uncertainty Ops tempo Timeliness of data Latency Different models Temporal scales Human factors Single Authoritative Source Latency of information Different products Spatial scales Machine 2 human Human factors Machine 2 machine Tactical versus strategic Human 2 machine Human 2 human

Weather Metrics Critical Success Index (CSI) Brier Skill Score Probability of Detection (POD) False Alarm Rate (FAR) Bias Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) Equitable Threat Score Weather metrics rarely translate to operational effectiveness and measurements

Other Factors to Consider CWSUs Weather Centers WFOs NAMs Controllers Planners Airlines Pilots Flight Services Commercial Weather Providers Aviation Associations The actors: Non-weather factors: Flight operations Airline consolidations and mergers New/improved/legacy FAA systems Regulations and guidance