Leaflet messaging in 2017 and 2015 general elections

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Supporting a Political Party. Joining a Party n Strong belief in partys policies n Main Scottish parties are Labour, SNP, Liberal Democrats, Conservative.

Advertisements

STAGE ONE: Begins in the Scottish Parliament STAGE TWO: Moved to the committee STAGE THREE: Back in parliament.

Influences on Voting. Part One

What are its advantages and disadvantages?

Elections, Electoral Reform, and 2010 The Purpose of Elections  They allow the ‘will of the people’ to be expressed  They provide for voter choice.

Election 2015: Prospects overall and the role of student electors Stephen D Fisher University of Oxford Presentation for the Higher Education Policy Institute.

UK Politics 22/10/13. But First  An IR Bible What is a UK Politics debate?  1) A topic of contemporary significance in current affairs: THW opt out.

What is happening on May 7 th 2015?. The General Election.

Swing seats: the General Election of 2015 Lewis Baston For 28 April 2015 update.

Developing better exam technique

Electoral Systems.

Voting Behaviour at the 2010 General Election Dr Justin Greaves University of Warwick.

For the British Polling Council / Market Research Society 19 June 2015 Voting Intention polling.

Is there a 2 party system in the UK?. YES Labour and Conservative always form a government 2 parties dominate the voting proportions Policy agenda dominated.

The British Electorate in 2015: The fragmentation of Britain’s Party system Professor Ed Fieldhouse University of Manchester

VOTING SYSTEMS IN THE UK and 2010 Election Results Comparison Election Results- Conservatives 306 seats (share of the vote, 36.1%) Labour.

Faith in politics? Exploring the political views of evangelicals today Spring 2015 Part of the 21st Century Evangelicals research series

Political Parties AS Politics. Political Parties and the need for them What are political parties? What are political parties? Why are parties important.

Money, Sex and Power Week 6 Remedying the Democratic Deficit: Blair’s ‘babes’ and the feminisation of UK politics.

Money, Sex and Power Week 9 Remedying the Democratic Deficit: Blair’s ‘babes’ and the feminisation of UK politics.

What is happening on May 7 th 2015?. The General Election.

‘Not Falling but Stalling’ Women and the 2011 Scottish Parliament Elections.

Answers to UK Parliamentary Elections worksheet. Question  What’s an election?

First Past the Post How representative is it?. What is FPTP  It is a, simple, voting system used in the UK general elections  The voter puts an X next.

Election Special What on earth happened?! Up to date examples for Health and Wealth How to incorporate the results into an essay on voting behaviour or.

How are Opinions Influenced by Political Campaigns?

Copyright, 2000 © Prentice Hall Magruder’s American Government C H A P T E R 8 Mass Media and Public Opinion.

The American People The American Melting Pot

BRITISH VALUES DEMOCRACY

Snap Election Result - Who were the winners and losers

Caitlin Milazzo University of Nottingham Jesse Hammond

Elections and Campaigning

Lesson 6: Long-Term Factors Affecting Voting Behaviour

Long Term Factors Affecting Voting

Who will you vote for in the Sacks Morasha General Election?

Public Opinion and Political Action

Democracy in Scotland National Qualifications.

Westminster Voting Intention

AP Government Public Opinion

Supplementary Vote Explained.

Westminster System to elect members of Parliament where all votes are equal Result 2015 UK Election. Conservative Party 239 seats Democratic.

Effectiveness of the Media

The Additional Member System

Key Features of FPTP.

Bratislava International School of Liberal Arts

"Other Parties" 23/09/2018 "Other Parties".

Applying Actuarial Thinking to Public Sector Politics

Additional Member System

SmartLaw Resource Teachers Introduction General Election ●

Public Opinion and Political Action

A B Which team will win the ‘tug of war’? Choose the team with the highest combined ‘weight’.

Voting Systems in the UK –

General Election 2010.

Chapter 6- Political Beliefs and Behaviors

Jane Green1 and Will Jennings2 University of Manchester

The General Election of 1979

Lesson Two: Shifting Ideology?

Meltdown: Can the LibDems avoid disaster in 2015?

Political Parties and Elections

Voting Systems in the UK –

Public Opinion and Political Action

Politics Quiz Sept 26th 2016.

Political Parties and Elections

Where will the parties do well and badly in 2015?

Lesson Two: Shifting Ideology?

Source Based Questions Data Analysis Questions

Aims To know what happened in the 1906 election

Political Parties and Elections

: Conservative Dominance

Voting Systems in the UK –

Presentation transcript:

Leaflet messaging in 2017 and 2015 general elections Caitlin Milazzo University of Nottingham Jesse Hammond Naval Postgraduate School Joshua Townsley University of Kent

Despite emphasis on new media, leaflets still most common form of election contact

Using crowdsourced info to study variation in messaging

Building the dataset Python-scraping to gather images, meta-information Some leaflets discarded (local elections, incomplete leaflets) Major, widely-competitive parties CON, LAB, LD, UKIP, Greens, and SNP Additional (manual) coding 21 policy dimensions (UK Policy Agendas Project) Candidate traits Images Mention of opposing parties/candidates

Distribution of leaflets 2015 2017 Party Count (%) Conservative 750 (23) 364 (28) Green 373 (11) 107 (8) Labour 891 (27) 406 (31) Lib Dem 727 (22) 361 (28) SNP 96 (3) 24 (2) UKIP 467 (14) 53 (4) Total 3,304 1,315 Seats 429 (68) 242 (38) No significant political differences between samples and omitted But some expected differences Socio-demographics Population density Engagement

Correlation between no Correlation between no. of party leaflets and BES leaflet contact in seat (%) Party 2015 2017 Conservative 0.18 0.17 Labour 0.28 0.22 Lib Dem 0.47 0.40 SNP 0.56 0.39 Green 0.46 0.44 UKIP 0.21 0.24 All correlations statistically significant at p<0.01

Conservative - % of leaflets mentioning issue

Labour - % of leaflets mentioning issue

LD - % of leaflets mentioning issue

UKIP - % of leaflets mentioning issue

Green - % of leaflets mentioning issue

2017 leaflets with a photo of the party leader

Leaflets with a photo of the party leader

More leader → Less candidate Mentioned (%) Con 2017 70 2015 88 Change -18 Lab 86 75 +11

How much emphasis on candidates? Mentioned (%) Name only (%) Ties + traits (%) Con 2017 70 64 23 2015 88 46 32 Change -18 +18 -9 Lab 86 58 29 75 63 15 +11 -5 +14

Everyone talked about their opponent(s) more in 2017 Party 2015 2017 Change Conservative 76 77 +1 Labour 80 86 +6 Lib Dem 90 +10 SNP 58 92 +34 UKIP 31 74 +43 Green 35 64 +29

Which opponents mentioned? % of leaflets Con Lab LD UKIP Green 2017 71 50 3 1 2015 67 35 29 Change +4 +15 -26 -2 84 20 2 80 33 10 -13 -8 81 59 48 +21 +2 +19

Which opponents mentioned? % of leaflets Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP 2017 83 8 2015 50 20 1 Change +33 -42 -20 -1 59 66 38 2 30 29 14 +29 +35 +24 56 16 7 27 31 21 +27 -11 -24

Average number of opponents mentioned

Summary of GE2017 leaflets Issues: Top issues remain top issues, but clear shift away from immigration Leaders: Less focus on leaders (with some exceptions) Candidates: More focus on candidates, Labour mirrors Con’s 2015 strengths, Con mirrors Lab’s weaknesses No longer any ‘nice’ parties