Load Shape Analysis – IRM 2008

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Presentation transcript:

Load Shape Analysis – IRM 2008 Cenk Yildirim Resource & Load Adequacy May 29, 2007

2008 IRM Study Load Shape Peak days of our neighbours Historic Zonal Peak Date/HR & Coincident Factors 2007 IRM Study based on 2002 LS Evaluation Includes > Examination of CDD & CTHI Duration Curves > NYCA Load Duration Curves (Hourly & Daily) > J & K Load Duration Curves (Hourly & Daily) EDRP & SCR added back into Load Shapes 1996, 2000 & 2004 Load shapes are excluded from analysis Draft – For Discussion Only

PJM Peak day occurred on Aug 2nd HR 17:00 2006 PJM & ISO-NE Peak Days PJM Peak day occurred on Aug 2nd HR 17:00 http://www.pjm.com/planning/res-adequacy/downloads/summer-2006%20-peaks-and-5cps.pdf IS0-NE Peak day occurred on Aug 2nd HR 15:00 http://www.iso-ne.com/trans/celt/fsct_detail/2007/peak_data_summary_website.xls Draft – For Discussion Only

Historic Peak Dates & Zones J & K Coincidence Factors Draft – For Discussion Only

Analysis of Weather Patterns Draft – For Discussion Only

Analysis of Weather Patterns, contd. On average 2002 is more conservative for top 50 days Draft – For Discussion Only

Summer CTHI Comparison 2002 2006 Number of Days Above Normal Curve 60 67 Number of Days Above 84F(Design) 4 Number of Days above 80 F 26 15 2002 has more extreme days on average 2006 peak producing CTHI is 88 F ( 95th Percentile) * From June 1st thru Aug 31st Draft – For Discussion Only

Historic EDRP & SCR Events EDRP & SCR MWs added back into Load Draft – For Discussion Only

2008 IRM Study Load Shape Daily Peak LDC Changed? There’s no evidence of a trending change in LDCs * From June 1st thru Sept 30th Draft – For Discussion Only

1996, 2000 & 2004 excluded from analysis Draft – For Discussion Only

1996, 2000 & 2004 excluded from analysis AVG 2002 2006 Number of days above 90%: 12 19 8 Number of days above 95%: 6 11 2 Draft – For Discussion Only

1996, 2000 & 2004 excluded from analysis Draft – For Discussion Only

1996, 2000 & 2004 excluded from analysis Draft – For Discussion Only

1996, 2000 & 2004 excluded from analysis Draft – For Discussion Only

1996, 2000 & 2004 excluded from analysis Draft – For Discussion Only

Hourly View of NYCA LDCs Draft – For Discussion Only

Hourly View of Zone-J LDCs Draft – For Discussion Only

Hourly View of Zone-K LDCs Draft – For Discussion Only

Conclusion 2006 Load Shape is less conservative compared to 2002. Draft – For Discussion Only

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