SY2016 Demographic Study Middleton SD Resident Student Projections and Based on SY2016 Student Data

Work Accomplished by Davis Demographics for Middleton SD Created customized data set for District Incorporated area development projects/plans Analyzed relevant area demographic data Developed 10-year student forecast

Mapping the District’s Student Data Each dot represents a student’s location The last 4 years of mapped student data were analyzed. The last 4 years of mapped student data were analyzed.

Planning Units or Study Areas

Attendance Matrices Enrolled Students by School HEIGHTS ELEMENTARY RANGE STUDENTS HEIGHTS ELEMENTARY MILL CREEK ELEMENTARY PURPLE SAGE ELEMENTARY Resident Student by School Zone K-5 603 515 63 25 566 22 534 10 366 14 342 SUB TOTAL ENROLLMENT 1535 551 607 377 Pre-Kindergarten 29 Out of District- K-5 159 50 51 58 TOTAL ENROLLMENT 1,723 601 658 464 Site Capacity 396 616 594 Site Capacity Percentage 151.8% 106.8% 78.1% Open Enrollment 86 124 122 Open Enrollment Percentage 14.3% 18.8% 26.3% Found on page 16 in report Helps the District track its open enrollment distribution.

Davis Demographics Projection Methodology

Middleton Birth Counts to Reported K-class Found on page 5 in report

Mobility Factors ES Attendance Area G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8 G9 G10 G11 G12 District Average 1.08 1.11 1.04 1.05 1.02 1.07 0.99 0.98 0.94 Heights Elementary 1.13 1.09 1.03 1.06 1.00 1.10 1.01 0.92 Mill Creek Elementary Purple Sage Elementary 0.97 0.95 0.89 Green = net increase from one grade to another Red = net decrease from one grade to another Black = no change/straight pass through DDP conducts historical student data comparisons for Study Areas where there are no new residential development over the past five years. DDP used 4 years of mapped student data (SY2013-16) and conducts annual grade transition analysis using an average (instead of weighted method) – more conservative approach (3 years of change). This factor helps to account for housing resales, foreclosures and apartment migration Found in report, page 7

Student Yield Factors 4,304 Total SFD's 0.373 SFD K-6 1,578 Total K-6 0.107 SFD 7-8 469 Total 7-8 0.213 SFD 9-12 936 Total 9-12 0.693 SFD K-12 2,983 Total K-12 *Note: Housing Types We Studied APT: Apartments SFD: Single House Detached SFA: Single House Attached (Townhouse) MBH: Mobile Home MFA: Multi-family Attached (Duplex)   *Student Generation Study was conducted by DDP. Data was based on the 2016 student data and county assessor data. Found on page 8 in report

Active or Planned Residential Builds (10/2016 – 10/2024) Active or Planned Residential Development (as of 6/30/2017) Active or Planned Residential Builds (10/2016 – 10/2024)

Active or Planned Residential Development (as of 6/30/2017)

Active or Planned Residential Development (as of 06/30/2017) Found on page 14 in report

Projections for Each Study Area

Projections for Each Attendance Area These are simply the summation of all of the individual Study Area projections that make up each attendance area.

District-wide 10-Year Projections – Residential Students Impact from Mobility Larger ES student counts will make up growth in MS and HS next 10 years Impact from Development

District-wide 10-Year Projected Enrollment Total Enrollment of the District = Peak or Highest Count

District Historic and Ten-Year Projected Resident Enrollment Found on page 18 in report

Forecasted Change in Elementary Area 2017-2026 Found on page 21 in report

Historic and Ten-Year Projected Resident Enrollment Elementary School Students SY2013-SY2026

Historic and Ten-Year Projected Resident Enrollment Middle School Students SY2013-SY2026

Historic and Ten-Year Projected Resident Enrollment High School Students SY2013-SY2026

Projected Resident Enrollment Elementary Student Population between SY2016-SY2026

Projected Resident Enrollment Middle School Student Population between SY2016-SY2026

Projected Resident Enrollment High School Student Population between SY2016- SY2026

Summary District has been experiencing growth the last three years and should expect more growth for the next ten years. New construction is expected to bring over 800 housing units the next eight years. The district is experiencing the in-migration from other areas of the country. The district is expected to experience an overall increase of almost 300 K-5 students or about 19.5% growth by the end of SY2026. The middle school student population has fluctuated the last several years due to a bubble in enrollment starting in SY2013. The high school is projected to have a net increase of about 480 resident students, or 43% growth, and reach site capacity by SY2023