Record-Breaking Holiday Spending Should Benefit Valentine’s Day Although there have been some concerns about wage growth during Q3 2018, which in turn could limit future consumer spending, October saw the largest increase in wage growth since 2009, or 3.1%, compared to October 2017. With 250,000 new jobs added during October 2018 and an unemployment rate of just 3.7%, it’s not surprising consumers were very confident, as The Conference Board’s monthly index was 137.9, the highest since September 2000. eMarketer, therefore, increased its forecast for total holiday spending to +5.8% and the likelihood of the first trillion-dollar holiday shopping season, a trend that is expected to continue into 2019, and benefit Valentine’s Day sales.

Americans Expand Their Valentine’s Day Celebrations The National Retail Federation’s (NRF) Valentine’s Day 2018 consumer survey revealed 45% of Americans weren’t expected to celebrate traditionally. Rather, 27% of all celebrants would be gathering with single friends and family members. Driving much of this new trend are adults 18–24 who view Valentine’s Day as a group activity and an opportunity to purchase a gift for themselves. Many retailers seemed unaware of this trend, as they continued to target the traditional couple, especially men. February 13th’s Galentine’s Day is another new trend, which Walmart “invented,” as a day for women to celebrate their singleness and friendship with other women.

A Very Chocolaty Day The 81.7% of US adults forecasted to consume chocolate during 2018 is slightly less than the 82.1% during 2017; however, the growing super-premium and “better-for-you” chocolate sub-categories are expected to drive the future of the market.   Driving the “better-for-you” chocolate sub-category during 2017 were the increases in consumers’ ingredient preferences: non-GM, +11.3%; sustainable, +8.6%; milk-free, +6.6%; all natural ingredients, +5.7%; and fewer than 5 ingredients, +4.3%. Candy continued to be the primary gift among 55% of celebrants for Valentine’s Day 2018, spending an estimated total of $1.8 billion; however, larger percentages of young adults planned to give candy: 18–24, 69%, and 25–34, 62%.

Flowers Are Still the Most Traditional Gift With NRF’s forecast for consumer floral gift spending for Valentine’s Day 2018 of $2.08 billion, 68% of Society of American Florists (SAF) member retail florists said they experienced increased sales, with only 14% experiencing a decrease. Although the average transaction was $73, decreasing from 2017’s $78 and 2016’s $84, 35% of retail florists responding to the SAF survey said their sales increased 6 to 10% and another 25% experienced a 1 to 5% increase. Most consumer purchases were similar to previous years, with 28% having bought fresh flowers or plants; 41% were men; 55% were purchased at supermarkets or grocery stores; and 84% purchased roses, 69% of which were red roses.

Chains Seem to Be the Top Restaurant Choices According to the NRF, Americans planned to spend a total of $3.7 billion for a Valentine’s Day dinner at a restaurant, which might also include a movie, a show or maybe dancing or other evening activities. Based on foot-traffic data from its geo-fencing technology for New York, Dallas and San Diego, Simpli.fi found 89% of chain restaurants and 39% of local restaurants had more foot traffic Wednesday, Valentine’s Day than the Wednesday of the previous week. Despite the amount of money people spend for a Valentine’s Day evening and the additional foot traffic, separate research has determined just 13% of those adults were drawn to a restaurant because of its specials or promotions.

Advertising Strategies With Valentine’s Day 2019 a Thursday, many restaurants have an opportunity to promote dinner specials for Friday and Saturday evenings too. Based on the data on page 3 of the Profiler, restaurants with Asian cuisine should do well with targeted TV advertising. If your prospects and clients are not aware of “Galentine’s Day,” then educate them and help them create promotions/specials targeting women, especially single women, to promote celebrating with their friends and gift-giving on this day. Now is the time for florists to arrange for a third- party delivery service to maximize Valentine’s Day deliveries, and then heavily promote their use of the service.

New Media Strategies Suggest retailers who may be planning holiday promotions targeting men via emails, social media and the mobile channel to offer a Valentine’s Day coupon/special with a qualifying purchase prior to January 1, 2019. A Valentine’s Day gift guide is an excellent promotional vehicle, with sections of gifts for men, women, friends and family members. It should be accessible and heavily promoted on retailers’ Websites as well as separate social media posts featuring specific items. Retailers and restauranteurs may also want to create social media posts, with each highlighting a brief historical reference to Valentine’s Day and/or featuring the stories of great romantic couples found in literature and throughout history.