Global Campaigning: Navigating complexity in multi-polar change processes Gabrielle Watson, Oxfam America American Evaluation Association Conference November, 2010

What’s different about Campaigning? Fast-pace High uncertainty Rapid shifts Emergent opportunities & threats High uncertainty & interdependence of factors source: www.combatairmuseum.org/exhibits/wasps.html

The Zone of Complexity - Patton Agreement Chaos Low Socially Complicated Plan a wedding Complex Raise a child Campaign Simple Follow a recipe Zimmerman et al, 1998, adapted from ideas of Ralph Stacey Technically complicated Send a rocket to the moon High Low Certainty

Oxfam’s Approach to Evaluation & Learning Theory of change Keyed to a monitoring framework Internal learning systems After-action reviews Team check-ins & strategy sessions Updated power analysis Retrospective process tracing & patterning External evaluations Internal approach is adapting “Developmental Evaluation” to internal systems. “In complex situations, cause and effect are unknown and unknowable until after the effect has emerged, at which point some retrospective process tracing and patterning may be possible.” - Michael Quinn Patton, Developmental Evaluation - Applying Complexity Concepts to Enhance Innovation and Use. Methods for real-time learning and adjustment ｷ After-action reviews ｷ Quarterly/monthly/weeklyTeam check-ins ｷ Strategy session look-backs ｷ Data review (at all of these) Methods for assessing contribution (and testing theory of change): ｷ Process tracing: effects, do case studies to trace the causal pathways back to activities. Test the claims of contribution ｷ Forensic evidence. Direct evidentiary proof of influence. Verbatim text in final bill language. Direct quote in newpaper. Spokespeople cited. ｷ Preponderance of the evidence/ body of evidence: Building up multiple anecdotal evidence that is compelling. Quality evidence of influence. Substantial offers of proof. ｷ General elimination theory. Fins a rational explanation and then systematically rule out all others. ｷ

Mutual accountabilities Inter-dependencies Mutual accountabilities

What’s different about Global Campaigning? Multi-nodal change process, with national level campaigning in many countries simultaneously to generate movement across the system as a whole. The overarching “theory of change” involves mobilizing public pressure to embolden rich and developing country governments to act. 3.2. Campaign proposition Oxfam campaigns with others to ensure that the interests of poor women and men in developing countries are at the heart of global plans to tackle climate change. 2009 offers a crucial political opportunity to tackle climate change. A safe and fair Global Deal must be agreed by COP15 (Copenhagen, December 2009). ｷ Safe: to stop catastrophic warming and avoid catastrophic climate change. ｷ Fair: so that poorer countries can develop in a carbon-constrained world and protect their vulnerable people. ｷ Fair: so that rich countries finally take responsibility for the crisis they have created. We will do this by: ｷ Working with others to ensure that the international community agrees a Global Deal that limits global warming to 2 degrees and that has justice and the needs of the world’s poorest women and men at its heart as well as massive resource transfers to support pro-poor adaptation in vulnerable economies. ｷ Mobilizing public opinion – North and South – to put pressure on decision makers to make the necessary bold decision to underpin a fair and adequate Global Deal, and counter special interests that attempt to delay or weaken urgent action. ｷ Advocacy and campaigning in vulnerable developing countries, including the influential emerging economies (BRICSAM), to ensure that poor people are lifted out of poverty as a result of excellent national adaptation policies supported by international finance. ｷ Advocacy and campaigning for rich countries to radically cut their emissions – first, furthest and fastest - given their historic responsibility for causing climate change. The foundation of all our campaigning on climate change will be to highlight the human cost of climate change on the world’s poorest people. Through this, we will feature the urgency for action and cost of inaction. This, we believe, will place justice and equity to the heart of the debate.

Global Campaign Theory of Change

USA Theory of Change Voices of voting public Members of Congress New Legislation Voices of Oxfam constituents COP15 Voices of affected people Administration officials Voices of opinion leaders US Negotiators Developing Countries Speak out Media & messaging Research & publications

Peru Theory of Change

Ethiopia Theory of Change

The Challenge Ahead COP 17, 18,19 .... COP 16

Inter-dependencies & Mutual Accountabilities at the Global level: evaluative challenges Multiple nodes - managing strategic learning & accountabilities across the system - actors and geographies Networked theories of change - clarifying causal links & interdependencies Defining critical success from multiple perspectives - focus internal strategic reviews across national contexts