Analysis of risk factors for abdominal aortic aneurysm in a cohort of more than 3 million individuals K. Craig Kent, MD, Robert M. Zwolak, MD, Natalia.

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Presentation transcript:

Analysis of risk factors for abdominal aortic aneurysm in a cohort of more than 3 million individuals K. Craig Kent, MD, Robert M. Zwolak, MD, Natalia N. Egorova, PhD, MPH, Thomas S. Riles, MD, Andrew Manganaro, MD, Alan J. Moskowitz, MD, Annetine C. Gelijns, PhD, Giampaolo Greco, PhD, MPH Journal of Vascular Surgery Volume 52, Issue 3, Pages 539-548 (September 2010) DOI: 10.1016/j.jvs.2010.05.090 Copyright © 2010 Society for Vascular Surgery Terms and Conditions

Fig 1 Distribution of screened people by age groups and abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) size. Number of people with AAA from 3cm to <4 cm, 17,109; from 4 cm to <5 cm, 4093; from 5 cm to <6 cm, 1519; 6 cm and up, 725. Journal of Vascular Surgery 2010 52, 539-548DOI: (10.1016/j.jvs.2010.05.090) Copyright © 2010 Society for Vascular Surgery Terms and Conditions

Fig 2 Age-adjusted effects of lifestyle characteristics and risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) in the Life Line Screening cohort are shown for (A) smoking duration, (B) number of cigarettes smoked per day, (C) time elapsed since quitting, and (D) different dietary habits on the risk of AAA. Reference groups are once per month or less for food consumption and no smokers for all smoking variables. *Meats: Processed and red meats. The vertical error bars show 95% confidence intervals. Journal of Vascular Surgery 2010 52, 539-548DOI: (10.1016/j.jvs.2010.05.090) Copyright © 2010 Society for Vascular Surgery Terms and Conditions

Fig 3 Validation and discriminative ability of the risk score to predict abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). (A) Observed vs predicted probability of AAA as a function of total risk score. Predicted and observed probabilities were calculated using development and validation subsets (50% each) of the Life Line Screening cohort. The vertical error bars show 95% confidence intervals for the observed curve. (B) Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of AAA risk score (continuous line) and risk score adapted for National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES; dotted red line). The performance of screening using cutoff points of 42, 58, and 65 is shown (NHANES version); 42 has the highest discriminative ability (closest point to sensitivity = 1 and specificity = 1). The diagonal dashed line represents a predictive accuracy no better than chance. Journal of Vascular Surgery 2010 52, 539-548DOI: (10.1016/j.jvs.2010.05.090) Copyright © 2010 Society for Vascular Surgery Terms and Conditions