Panel Discussion: What after the euro adoption?

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Presentation transcript:

Panel Discussion: What after the euro adoption? J. Onno de Beaufort Wijnholds European Central Bank 10th Dubrovnik Economic Conference 24/02/2019

What are the policy challenges related to membership of a monetary union?... …The experience of Portugal and Spain might provide some valuable insights. 24/02/2019

Observation #1: Spain has outperformed Portugal as regards economic growth and fiscal solidity. (Annual percent change/In percent of GDP) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Real GDP PRT 3.8 3.4 1.8 0.5 -1.3 ESP 4.2 2.8 2.0 2.4 Structural balance -3.3 -3.9 -4.6 -2.1 -0.9 -1.0 -1.2 -0.7 1.0 Source: IMF. 24/02/2019

Observation #2: The much stronger increase in ULC in Portugal ... 1999 (Annual percent change) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 ULC PRT 8.2 4.3 5.0 2.1 ESP 3.0 3.8 3.2 2.9 Source: Broad Economic Policy Guidelines. 24/02/2019

… had a bearing on the employment dynamics and the development of the current account. (Annual percent change/In percent of GDP) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Employment PRT 1.8 1.7 1.6 0.2 -0.8f ESP 5.5 3.7 2.0 2.7f Current Account -8.5 -10.4 -9.5 -6.7 -5.1 -2.3 -3.4 -2.8 -2.4 -2.5 Source: IMF. 24/02/2019

Observation #3: Spain has been more successful in attracting FDI than Portugal. (In billions of euro) 1999 2000 2001 2002 FDI PRT 1.2 7.4 6.6 4.5 ESP 14.8 40.7 31.3 22.5 Source: IMF. 24/02/2019

What are the lessons to be learned from these countries’ experiences? Spain put its fiscal position on a sound footing and successfully implemented structural reforms. Portugal conducted an overly loose fiscal policy and tackled less vigorously structural impediments to growth and employment creation. 24/02/2019

Conclusions National policymakers face specific challenges in the context of a monetary union, relating inter alia to fiscal discipline, wage restraint and sound institutions. Failing to meet these challenges will adversely affect a country’s economic performance. 24/02/2019