LAMAS Working Group 24-25 June 2014 Agenda Item 2.7 Monthly unemployment Nicola.massarelli@ec.europa.eu

INCREASED VISIBILITY, HENCE INCREASED QUALITY REQUIREMENTS Context MUR now PEEI and MIP indicator One of the most visible of Eurostat's indicators INCREASED VISIBILITY, HENCE INCREASED QUALITY REQUIREMENTS

History Situation up to 2008 MUR managed by Eurostat for nearly all MS Ad-hoc treatment for each MS For several MS: quarterly data only Improvements since 2008 Monthly data for all but 1 country MU data directly produced by15 MS One single method (Denton) applied by Eurostat for all other countries

Drawbacks of the current situation No legal guarantee of monthly data transmission (content, deadlines, methods, quality) Heterogeneous MS' choices (harmful for comparability and quality of EA/EU aggregates) Several estimation methods for raw data Different choices for adjustment (SA vs. trends) Different timeliness

Strategy for further MU improvement Legal framework (long-term) Quality framework (mid-term) Transitional arrangements (short-term)

1. Legal framework (long term) General provisions to be submitted to the next DSS meeting … …. in the context of the modernisation of social statistics … to be detailed through a delegated act in 2015

2. Quality framework (mid-term) Goal: Establish statistical criteria… … to assess performance of different methodological options… … and rank acceptable methods / identify non- acceptable ones How: TF on monthly unemployment

TF on monthly unemployment: tasks 1/2 Identify relevant quality dimensions/concerns Volatility, Revisions, Turning point identification, Timeliness, … Also based on preliminary user consultation Develop indicators for each dimension Starting from work already carried out by Eurostat

TF on monthly unemployment: tasks 2/2 Define acceptance/rejection thresholds for each indicator Provide indications on how to read indicators scoreboard vs synthetic indicator(s) Ultimately propose a A/B/C classification of methods

TF: organisation and LAMAS support 2 meetings: Q4 2014 (22-23 October) and first half 2015 Report to LAMAS: possibly in June 2015 LAMAS expected to provide all necessary support User consultation before first meeting Key international and national users Eurostat develops a short questionnaire to submit to users NSIs asked to provide references to national users and possibly submit the questionnaire to them

3. Indications for the immediate future Goal: provide immediate, transitory guidance Indications (before TF conclusions): No trends as the headline No 3mma, except if an estimation method is found for the “missing” month(s) No non-centred moving averages Recommendation: ask Eurostat before taking initiative!

Training on regression composite estimation Theoretical aspects + supervised application directly by participants (detailed programme will follow in due course) Held in Luxembourg in December 2014 (4/5 or 8/9) Trainer from Istat (Mrs Silvia Loriga) Max 15 places Reimbursement of travel expenses for participants The same course or similar ones could be organised next year

Exchange of views (25 replies) Unanimous support to the creation of a TF on MU 7 or 8 volunteers so far: DE, FR, IT, PT, RO, (FI), SE, UK Explicit support to user survey from IE, IT, CY, LV and PT (but no objection by any MS) 6 volunteers for training: EE, FR, LV, LU, AT, PT

LAMAS is asked to: Approve the creation of a TF on monthly unemployment and the proposed mandate Approve the idea of running a preliminary user survey Volunteer for the TF Endorse the indications for the immediate future Volunteer to participate to the training on regression composite estimation