Risk and Environment A Strategic Perspective Inserting text into the Title Slide Simply click on the ‘Presentation Starting’ text to type the appropriate title Paul Hayden MA, MSc, MIFireE Chief Officer / Chief Executive Hereford & Worcester Fire and Rescue Service

3 Practical Impacts “The atmosphere isn’t warming, and if it is, then its down to natural variations; and even if its not down to natural variations, then the amount of warming is insignificant; and if it becomes significant, then the benefits will outweigh the problems, and even if they don’t, technology will come to the rescue; and even if it doesn't, we shouldn’t risk wrecking the economy because some of the science is uncertain!”

New critical threshold Climate sensitivity, vulnerability and adaptation Present Past Time Climate variable Decision to adapt Vulnerability New coping range New critical threshold Implementation of adaptation Critical threshold Coping range Future Lag Planning time horizon Slide courtesy of UKCIP

Definitions of key terms 5 Definitions of key terms INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE [IPCC] Climate change in IPCC usage refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.

6 Strategic Challenges FRS must act to reduce its impact on the Environment. We need to build, and continually make, the strategic business and economic case for adaptation – i.e; reduction in fires = reduction in GHG Make the case for a review of B1 on environmental grounds - sprinklers to reduce carbon impact of fire data as a driver for local partnerships We should use our “brand” as community leaders in persuading others to adapt

FRS Practical Impacts 7 HOWEVER: Historic emissions mean we will experience significant change in the next 50 years regardless of our actions to reduce emissions – our service will need to adapt to change in at least 5 key areas; High Summer Temperatures Floods Drought Storms Social Impact – [ for example, migration] This is not an excuse to do nothing – indeed, we need urgent action today to adapt to the “new normal”

High Summer Temperatures

Drought

Storm

Flood

Migration

Final Thoughts Our key contribution is leadership 16 It’s a big ask for our Authorities, Communities and staff to accept [and pay] for adaptive behaviours when they cant see the immediate pay back Do not fall into the “either / or” trap! Its not about GHG reductions or adapting to service delivery challenges – we need a strategic and coordinated approach to both There will be ongoing arguments about the science, and its easy to put off doing anything in the belief that “we cant do anything, so why bother” Our key contribution is leadership