David Laborde, Valeria Piñeiro, Joe Glauber

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Presentation transcript:

Negociaciones agrícolas en la OMC: ¿qué está en juego en la Conferencia Ministerial de Buenos Aires?

David Laborde, Valeria Piñeiro, Joe Glauber MC11: A new opportunity to reduce distortions in the agricultural global trade system David Laborde, Valeria Piñeiro, Joe Glauber

Overview What should be done to reduce distortions in agricultural world markets? What can be done to reduce distortions in agricultural world markets? Quantifying options Inherited from the UR Imbalances

Existing WTO framework Anexo 2 del Acuerdo sobre la Agricultura Anexo 2- Compartimento verde Artículo 6 del Acuerdo sobre la Agricultura Párrafo 2- Programas de desarrollo Párrafo 5- Programas que limitan la producción (compartimiento azul) Párrafo 4- De minimis Párrafo 3- MGA total corriente Playing with Boxes: Green, Blue and Amber Inherited from the UR Imbalances

Changing Markets Fuente: Laborde 2014

Changing Policies Fuente: ICTSD 2017

More on the last 20 years A new book Understanding why the Doha Round has failed The Cost of Failure Potential Solutions Policy space and risk management Beyond domestic support https://www.ifpri.org/blog/ifpri-book-launch-how-trade-policies-can-foster-food-security

Analytical Framework Defining Scenarios Good data Economic Model http://www.ifpri.org/publication/modeling-international-relationships-applied-general-equilibrium-mirage-model

Scenario Design But details matter! Key Concept: Overall Trade Distorting Support or OTDS Scenario # 1 2 3 4 Label OTDS with variable VoP OTDS with fixed VoP OTDS with product cap High Ambition OTDS limit for Developed 10% China 17% Developing 20% OTDS expressed as % of Current VoP Fixed Reference VoP Article 6.2 included in OTDS No Yes Product Limit Yes** OTDS allowed rate reduced over time Yes* But details matter! But Details matter! Scenario Design

Impact on policy space Scenario Design Impact on developing countries in the baseline! Replaced by impact on developed economies in the first scenario Fuente: MIRAGRODEP model simulations 2017

Impact on applied policies Scenario Design Fuente: MIRAGRODEP model simulations 2017

Impact on world markets Scenario Design Fuente: MIRAGRODEP model simulations 2017

Impact on exports (volume) Scenario Design Fuente: MIRAGRODEP model simulations 2017

Impact on real farmer income Scenario Design Fuente: MIRAGRODEP model simulations 2017

Concluding remarks Reforming the Uruguay Round domestic support policy framework is possible and needed Not doing it is increasingly costly Discipling policy space in both developing and developed world: role of emerging countries Basic reform will have very limited impacts in the next 10 years More ambitious reforms with adequate product limit could deliver significant gains for some commodities: Very important to properly define “product limit”

¡Muchas Gracias!