The Participation Challenge

The good news Kyoto in force and ratified by over 120 countries Ratifying Annex 1 countries required to meet binding emissions reduction targets Other ratifiers required to develop domestic mitigation strategies Second commitment period targets can begin to be discussed EU emissions trading scheme MORI - National Survey - telephone with 1000 adults (16+) 2004 and 2002 The Day After Tomorrow: Are the British too cool on climate change? (27th May 04) found awareness of term global warming/climate change was high, understanding low Lack of knowledge and sceptism on green issues Currently the ‘environment is not as salient a national issue as it was in the late 1980s/early 1990s, when it briefly became seen as one of the most important issues facing Britain. Superseded by defence/foreign affairs and delivery of public services. When asked in 2001 (before 9/11) - the environment was sighted by both citizens in Britain and across Europe as one of 2 or 3 most important global problems. (others cited include war, famine, HIV/Aids) Media dominated by Iraq war Public concern about global warming lags behind the Government. By a factor of 2:1, the public see terrorism (48%) as more important than global warming (25%) (1) Public understanding of climate change and the international political agenda to tackle this issue is low. (1) 50% Britons have never heard of Kyoto Agreement (78% had not heard of or knew nothing about Global Earth Summit in Jo Burg despite 170 govt being represented). (2) A 2002 MORI survey showed that 70% of people are unable to name the gas that most contributes to global warming. (1)

The Bad News Emissions and concentrations still rising US not on board Russian hot air Rapid increases in emissions in some non-Annex 1 countries Even EU not on linear path to meet Kyoto target from domestic reductions MORI - National Survey - telephone with 1000 adults (16+) 2004 and 2002 The Day After Tomorrow: Are the British too cool on climate change? (27th May 04) found awareness of term global warming/climate change was high, understanding low Lack of knowledge and sceptism on green issues Currently the ‘environment is not as salient a national issue as it was in the late 1980s/early 1990s, when it briefly became seen as one of the most important issues facing Britain. Superseded by defence/foreign affairs and delivery of public services. When asked in 2001 (before 9/11) - the environment was sighted by both citizens in Britain and across Europe as one of 2 or 3 most important global problems. (others cited include war, famine, HIV/Aids) Media dominated by Iraq war Public concern about global warming lags behind the Government. By a factor of 2:1, the public see terrorism (48%) as more important than global warming (25%) (1) Public understanding of climate change and the international political agenda to tackle this issue is low. (1) 50% Britons have never heard of Kyoto Agreement (78% had not heard of or knew nothing about Global Earth Summit in Jo Burg despite 170 govt being represented). (2) A 2002 MORI survey showed that 70% of people are unable to name the gas that most contributes to global warming. (1)

The EU Political leadership must continue Essential to lead by example Accession countries provide example of economies in transition within burden sharing agreement First mover advantage Prevent carbon migration - introduce protective trade measures for most affected industries MORI - National Survey - telephone with 1000 adults (16+) 2004 and 2002 The Day After Tomorrow: Are the British too cool on climate change? (27th May 04) found awareness of term global warming/climate change was high, understanding low Lack of knowledge and sceptism on green issues Currently the ‘environment is not as salient a national issue as it was in the late 1980s/early 1990s, when it briefly became seen as one of the most important issues facing Britain. Superseded by defence/foreign affairs and delivery of public services. When asked in 2001 (before 9/11) - the environment was sighted by both citizens in Britain and across Europe as one of 2 or 3 most important global problems. (others cited include war, famine, HIV/Aids) Media dominated by Iraq war Public concern about global warming lags behind the Government. By a factor of 2:1, the public see terrorism (48%) as more important than global warming (25%) (1) Public understanding of climate change and the international political agenda to tackle this issue is low. (1) 50% Britons have never heard of Kyoto Agreement (78% had not heard of or knew nothing about Global Earth Summit in Jo Burg despite 170 govt being represented). (2) A 2002 MORI survey showed that 70% of people are unable to name the gas that most contributes to global warming. (1)

The US (and Australia) Commercial emissions trading schemes in states will provide bottom-up pressure on Federal Governments Isolation through extension of EU trading amongst other ratifiers Trade sanctions to prevent free-riding MORI - National Survey - telephone with 1000 adults (16+) 2004 and 2002 The Day After Tomorrow: Are the British too cool on climate change? (27th May 04) found awareness of term global warming/climate change was high, understanding low Lack of knowledge and sceptism on green issues Currently the ‘environment is not as salient a national issue as it was in the late 1980s/early 1990s, when it briefly became seen as one of the most important issues facing Britain. Superseded by defence/foreign affairs and delivery of public services. When asked in 2001 (before 9/11) - the environment was sighted by both citizens in Britain and across Europe as one of 2 or 3 most important global problems. (others cited include war, famine, HIV/Aids) Media dominated by Iraq war Public concern about global warming lags behind the Government. By a factor of 2:1, the public see terrorism (48%) as more important than global warming (25%) (1) Public understanding of climate change and the international political agenda to tackle this issue is low. (1) 50% Britons have never heard of Kyoto Agreement (78% had not heard of or knew nothing about Global Earth Summit in Jo Burg despite 170 govt being represented). (2) A 2002 MORI survey showed that 70% of people are unable to name the gas that most contributes to global warming. (1)

Rapidly Developing Countries Growing awareness and willingness to take action Without US participation and deep cuts in OECD countries legally binding targets improbable Voluntary relative targets for second period? Voluntary internalisation of price of carbon? Re-orientation of international finance flows to enable step change in energy technologies MORI - National Survey - telephone with 1000 adults (16+) 2004 and 2002 The Day After Tomorrow: Are the British too cool on climate change? (27th May 04) found awareness of term global warming/climate change was high, understanding low Lack of knowledge and sceptism on green issues Currently the ‘environment is not as salient a national issue as it was in the late 1980s/early 1990s, when it briefly became seen as one of the most important issues facing Britain. Superseded by defence/foreign affairs and delivery of public services. When asked in 2001 (before 9/11) - the environment was sighted by both citizens in Britain and across Europe as one of 2 or 3 most important global problems. (others cited include war, famine, HIV/Aids) Media dominated by Iraq war Public concern about global warming lags behind the Government. By a factor of 2:1, the public see terrorism (48%) as more important than global warming (25%) (1) Public understanding of climate change and the international political agenda to tackle this issue is low. (1) 50% Britons have never heard of Kyoto Agreement (78% had not heard of or knew nothing about Global Earth Summit in Jo Burg despite 170 govt being represented). (2) A 2002 MORI survey showed that 70% of people are unable to name the gas that most contributes to global warming. (1)

Least Developed Countries No justification for targets Also benefit from re-oriented finance flows Adaptation most pressing issue MORI - National Survey - telephone with 1000 adults (16+) 2004 and 2002 The Day After Tomorrow: Are the British too cool on climate change? (27th May 04) found awareness of term global warming/climate change was high, understanding low Lack of knowledge and sceptism on green issues Currently the ‘environment is not as salient a national issue as it was in the late 1980s/early 1990s, when it briefly became seen as one of the most important issues facing Britain. Superseded by defence/foreign affairs and delivery of public services. When asked in 2001 (before 9/11) - the environment was sighted by both citizens in Britain and across Europe as one of 2 or 3 most important global problems. (others cited include war, famine, HIV/Aids) Media dominated by Iraq war Public concern about global warming lags behind the Government. By a factor of 2:1, the public see terrorism (48%) as more important than global warming (25%) (1) Public understanding of climate change and the international political agenda to tackle this issue is low. (1) 50% Britons have never heard of Kyoto Agreement (78% had not heard of or knew nothing about Global Earth Summit in Jo Burg despite 170 govt being represented). (2) A 2002 MORI survey showed that 70% of people are unable to name the gas that most contributes to global warming. (1)

The Other Participation Challenge EU leadership will need to be supported Many silent voices e.g. renewables and energy efficiency industry financial and services industry benefiting from new policies Communicating issue to general public essential Participation can be part of awareness raising MORI - National Survey - telephone with 1000 adults (16+) 2004 and 2002 The Day After Tomorrow: Are the British too cool on climate change? (27th May 04) found awareness of term global warming/climate change was high, understanding low Lack of knowledge and sceptism on green issues Currently the ‘environment is not as salient a national issue as it was in the late 1980s/early 1990s, when it briefly became seen as one of the most important issues facing Britain. Superseded by defence/foreign affairs and delivery of public services. When asked in 2001 (before 9/11) - the environment was sighted by both citizens in Britain and across Europe as one of 2 or 3 most important global problems. (others cited include war, famine, HIV/Aids) Media dominated by Iraq war Public concern about global warming lags behind the Government. By a factor of 2:1, the public see terrorism (48%) as more important than global warming (25%) (1) Public understanding of climate change and the international political agenda to tackle this issue is low. (1) 50% Britons have never heard of Kyoto Agreement (78% had not heard of or knew nothing about Global Earth Summit in Jo Burg despite 170 govt being represented). (2) A 2002 MORI survey showed that 70% of people are unable to name the gas that most contributes to global warming. (1)