Central banks in chaotic times Marc Lavoie Changes in central bank procedures during the subprime crisis and their repercussions on monetary theory

Motivation The financial crisis has forced central bankers to modify their procedures. It has also forced them to explicitly reject some elements of textbook monetary theory. It also has some implications for heterodox (post-Keynesian) monetary theory. As a case study, I look at the Federal Reserve.

Outline Some preliminaries on monetary theory and central bank operations. Operating procedures of the Fed since August 2007. Implications of the new procedures for PK theory Implications for textbook monetary theory and the Public Relations problem of central banks today.

Preliminaries I: mainstream (textbook) monetary theory The central bank controls the amount of bank reserves or high powered money Banks need excess reserves at the central bank to make loans. Excess reserves lead to the creation of money deposits. There is a money multiplier story. Excess reserves lead to excess money, which leads to price inflation. Click View then Header and Footer to change this text

P2: The post-Keynesian view of money creation Banks look for credit-worthy borrowers first. Then they try to find the reserves they need. Loans make deposits, which make reserves Reserves are demand-determined The money supply is demand-determined The money multiplier is an accounting identity It plays no behavioural role. It must be banned from all textbooks. Central banks provide the reserves needed by the system, at the rate of interest of their choice. Click View then Header and Footer to change this text

Click View then Header and Footer to change this text The timeline Click View then Header and Footer to change this text

Click View then Header and Footer to change this text Source: Keister, Martin, McAndrews (2009) Click View then Header and Footer to change this text

The timeline at the Fed I Financial pressures started in mid-August 2007. Real financial pressures started at the end of December 2007. The Fed is forced to make use of its lending facilities, providing loans (liquidity) to banks. The expansionary effects of the central bank loans are neutralized by open market operations. Until 12 September 2008, the Fed is able to move the federal funds rate next to the FMOC target interest rate (2%). It is able to do so because the neutralizing operations of the Fed keep reserves at their approximate required level.

The balance sheet of the Fed until 18 September 2008 Assets Liabilities Foreign reserves Cash (banknotes) Credit to the domestic government (Treasury bills) Deposits of banks (reserves) (deposit facilities) Credit to the domestic private sector (lending facilities) Government deposits Central bank bills Click View then Header and Footer to change this text

Initially, the Fed keeps the supply of reserves in line with the demand for reserves, and the expected fed funds rate is the target rate S Lending rate Target Fed rate Expected Fed funds rate Demand for reserves Deposit rate = 0 Reserves

Click View then Header and Footer to change this text Standard deviation of discrepancy between effective and target fed funds rate Period 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007-01-01 2007-08-08 Standard deviation 17.7 5.2 6.1 3.9 4.2* 7.1 5.4 2.9 Peak monthly value 50.1 (Sept) 8.4 13.2 7.0 10.9 8.3 3.4 2007-08-09 2007-09-14 2007-09-17 2007-12-31 2008-01-01 2008-09-14 2008-09-15 2008-10-08 2008-10-09 2008-11-05 2008-11-06 2008-12-05 2008-12-16 2010-04-30 18.8 10.8 15.6* 9.0 62.8 16.9 19.4 4.1 23.5 (Dec) 11.0 Click View then Header and Footer to change this text

Timeline at the Fed II On 15 September 2008, the Lehman Brothers declares chapter 11 bankruptcy (a buyer could not be found and Paulson/Bernanke declined to nationalize it). The interbank market freezes: banks don’t lend to each other. Most banks in a long position at the clearing house prefer to keep their excess funds as deposits at the Fed. Banks in a short position at the clearing house are forced to borrow at the Fed.

Timeline at the Fed II (bis) From then on, the Fed is unable to achieve its target (fed funds rate is at first too high) From 19 September 2008, the Fed decides to inject huge amounts of liquidities (provide huge lending facilities to the banks (and AIG)), without neutralizing them. This is when the balance sheet of the Fed starts exploding. The Fed loses control of the fed funds rate. Click View then Header and Footer to change this text

The balance sheet of the Fed starting on 19 September 2008 Assets Liabilities Foreign reserves Cash (banknotes) Credit to the domestic government (Treasury bills) Deposits of banks (reserves) (deposit facilities) Credit to the domestic private sector (MBS, toxic assets …) Government deposits Central bank bills Click View then Header and Footer to change this text

The demand for excess reserves explodes as the banks lose confidence in each other as a consequence of the failure of Lehman Brothers: the fed funds rate rises S Lending rate Fed funds rate 15-16 Sept. Target rate Demand for reserves Deposit rate = 0 Reserves

The demand for excess reserves keeps exploding: the Fed stops neutralizing its lending facilities: fed funds rate drops below target S S’ S’’ Lending rate Target rate Fed funds rate Demand for reserves Deposit rate = 0 Reserves

Timeline at the Fed III On 6 October 2008, the Fed gets the authority to pay interest rates on (excess) reserves, thus setting up a corridor system, with a ceiling (the discount rate) and a floor (the interest rate on reserves). Despite this, the Fed lost control of the federal funds rate, with a target at 1.50% and fed funds rate hovering between 0.67% and 1.04%.

This is what should have happened with the corridor system: the fed funds rate is at least equal to the deposit rate S S’’ S’ Lending rate Target Fed funds rate Demand for reserves Deposit rate Rate of interest on reserves Reserves

Timeline at the Fed IV On 6 November 2008, the Fed interest rate on all reserves is set as the target fed funds rate (1%). Despite this, the fed funds rate hovers between 0.10% and 0.62%, getting ever lower. Finally, on 17 December 2008, the Fed announces a target between 0 and 0.25%, with a rate on reserves at 0.25%, and actual fed funds rate in 2009 between 0.10 and 0.24%.

This is what should have happened with the target rate set at the deposit rate, and with a large amount of reserves : the fed funds rate is exactly equal to the deposit rate S S’ Lending rate Demand for reserves Target rate and Deposit rate 1% Reserves

Why doesn’t the fed funds rate stay at the bottom of the corridor? Not all participants (GSEs) to the fed funds market are eligible to receive interest on their reserve balances. There are also foreign institutions that hold balances at the Fed that don’t get interest on reserves. They may thus lack bargaining power and being forced to lend their surplus funds at a rate below the floor.

Implications for monetary theory

The Decoupling Principle With the target interest rate set at the floor of the corridor, central banks (FED, BOC) can now set the target rate at the level of their choice and simultaneously set the amount of reserves at the level of their choice. There is no relationship anymore between reserves and overnight rates. This is the decoupling principle (Borio and Disyatat 2009) This was recommended by Woodford (2000, p. 255), Goodfriend (2002, p. 3), Fullwiler (2005) and Ennis and Keister (2008), and in more detail by Keister et al. (2008). It was endorsed in New Zealand and Norway, before the crisis!

Implications for PK theory On a day-to-day basis, the supply of reserves is vertical (as represented here). A standard assertion of PK theory was that the supply of reserves is demand-determined, at the target overnight rate (the supply of reserves is horizontal). With the target overnight rate set at the floor of the corridor, this is no longer true. The supply of reserves can exceed the demand for reserves. The central bank can maintain excess reserves.

Click View then Header and Footer to change this text A point of controversy Some PK or NK authors believe that paying interest on excess reserves leads to more credit rationing and less economic activity, with banks being induced to make less loans to producing firms (Palley 2010, Pollin 2010,Stiglitz 2010). They propose to remove interest on reserves, or to tax excess reserves. These authors don’t seem to realize that, as pointed out by Fullwiler (2005), “banks cannot use reserve balances for anything other than settling payments or meeting reserve requirements; reserve balances do not fund additional lending”. Their beliefs, ultimately, must be based on some implicit version of the money multiplier story. Click View then Header and Footer to change this text

Support for PK position by Bank of England deputy governor “The level of commercial banks’ reserves in aggregate is determined by the way we have funded the asset purchases, not by the commercial banks’ own decisions. The size of banks’ reserves cannot, as is frequently claimed, be a sign that they are “sitting on them”. No matter how rapidly or how slowly the economy is growing, or how fast or slow the money is circulating, the aggregate amount of reserves will be exactly the same. So it should be clear that the quantity of central bank reserves held by the commercial banks is useless as an indicator of the effectiveness of Quantitative Easing” (Bean 2009). Click View then Header and Footer to change this text

The problem of central banks today Standard theory says that reserves create money, and money creates price inflation. So if there are large excess reserves, this should lead to excess money supply or at least overly low interest rates, and hence inflation now or in the near future. But the decoupling principle shows there is no relation between reserves and interest rates, and hence no relation with prices. « There is a concern that markets may at some point, possibly based on the ‘wrong model’, become excessively concerned about the potential inflationary implications of these policies » (Bordo Disyatat, BIS, p. 22). This means that the ‘market’ has the ‘wrong’ model. Gone are models of rational expectations within a single ‘correct’ model of the macroeconomy!

Central bank communications There is a big effort by central bankers in the US to convince financial experts that the correct monetary theory has changed: excess reserves do not lead to inflation As said by William Dudley (2009, p. 1), the President and CEO of the New York Fed, “it is not the case that our expanded balance sheet will inevitably prove inflationary. It is important that this critical issue be well understood” Keister and McAndrews, NYFRB (2008, 2009) claim that no inflationary pressures can arise when the target fed rate is the deposit rate. The reason given is that banks have no opportunity cost in holding these reserves, and hence will not try to use them by lending them. They reluctantly give some credibility to the multiplier story, but only when the target rate is set in the middle of the corridor, where it should be normally.

My critique to Keister (January 2009) “You seem to imply that the textbook multiplier still applies when reserves earn no interest. I think that this is a misleading statement. It implies that there is a bunch of agents out there, waiting for banks to provide them with loans, but that there are being credit rationed because banks don’t have access to free reserves. ...Rather what happens when excess reserves are being provided with no remuneration of reserves is that the fed funds rate drops down, as banks with surplus reserves despair to find banks with insufficient reserves, having no alternative but a zero rate. The drop in the fed funds rate may induce banks to lower their lending rates, and hence induce new borrowers to ask for loans or bigger loans, but it really has nothing to do with the standard multiplier story. If there is no change in the lending rate, new creditworthy borrowers just won’t show up. There is never any money multiplier effect.”

Keister (NYFR) in personnal communication, January 2010 “I agree with you on the money multiplier, but I would state things in a slightly different way....I understand your comment to be that this mechanism is not the ‘money multiplier’ as commonly described. We decided to be more generous to the textbooks and say that this mechanism must be what they had in mind, even if they left out the part about interest rates to simplify things for the students. Importantly, I think we agree on the point that discussions of the money multiplier have done more harm than good in terms of helping people understand what is going on.”

Implications for fiscal policy If reserves can be remunerated at a rate of interest which is not far from that of Treasury bills, why bother selling T-bills to private markets when running a federal government deficit? The deficit can be as well financed by forcing banks to hold more reserves. Banks should be indifferent between holding central bank reserves and Treasury bills. Click View then Header and Footer to change this text

Click View then Header and Footer to change this text QE2 Quantitative easing operates through an attempt to lower interest rates on assets that go beyond short-term government securities. Instead of announcing the purchases of given amounts of securities and hoping this will have the forecasted effect on interest rates, shouldn’t the monetary authorities announce that they will purchase any given amount of government securities at a pre-announced price, thus setting the long-term interest rate on government securities? Click View then Header and Footer to change this text

Conclusion The global financial crisis may have one good result: it may get the false money multiplier story out of textbooks. It has led to a small change in PK monetary theory.