Early Warning Systems: Climate Change and Earthquakes Mohamed El Raey University of Alexandria And CEDARE

Objectives of Early Warning To be better prepared to face challenges of the risk of long term or sudden disasters by: Avoiding and reducing damages and loss Saving human lives, health , economic development and cultural heritage Upgrading quality of life, public and international image

Intervention Phases Prevention Preparedness Mitigation Response Recovery Disasters Disaster Cycle Underdevelopment

Climate Change Increasing rates of emission of Greenhouse gases have led to a measurable global average temperature increase ( a global phenomena with local impacts) This is expected to lead to sea level rise, impact on water resources, impact on food productivity, and increased rates of dust and sea storms (all sectors of development for all countries will be affected at varying magnitudes) Uncertainties of the phenomena have been removed. The only uncertainties that may exist is of magnitudes and time frames. Action (governments, communities and individuals) is needed as early as possible so as to minimize future impacts. Any delays means extra losses

Investigate Environment: A coastal area in Egypt

Satellite classification of Land use of Alexandria

Digital Elevation Model of Alexandria

Land use losses in Alexandria City By the year 2100

Dust storms in the Red Sea

Heavy investment on low areas in Bahrain

Stern Report The scientific evidence is now overwhelming: climate change presents very serious global risks, and it demands an urgent global response. Climate change presents a unique challenge for economics: it is the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen. From all of these perspectives, the evidence gathered by the Review leads to a simple conclusion: the benefits of strong, early action considerably outweigh the costs. The impacts of climate change are not evenly distributed - the poorest countries and people will suffer earliest and most. And if and when the damages appear it will be too late to reverse the process. Thus we are forced to look a long way ahead.

Needs for a National Strategy Build up an inventory and identify indicators of changes Build up a geo-data base and vulnerability assessments (locations, sectors, severity, life, health and economic losses) Set criteria for Indicators of performance and efficiency of Early Warning Systems Identify and assess options for proactive adaptation Disseminate Information and upgrade awareness and enforce policy

Earthquakes

Satellite Detection of Heat Stresses (days before earthquakes) WARM BEFORE THE STORM: An earthquake killed more than 20 000 people on 26 January 2001 in the Indian state of Gujarat. NASA's Terra satellite made infrared maps of the region on 6, 21, and 28 January [left to right]. Five days before the earthquake [middle], the area near the epicenter [white square] gave off an unusual amount of infrared radiation [red]. Just two days after the quake [right], the radiation was gone. IMAGES: NASA

Topside sounders Seismo-ionospheric coupling Compas-Vulcan program

Early Warning Systems for Earthquakes

Examples of comparison of daily variations of foF2 (points) with their monthly median values (stroke), three days before and one day after the earthquake. By the data of ground-based stations of vertical sounding for various earthquakes: 1-Milkovo (5.09.1971, 18.35 UT, M=7.2,); 2-Rome (23.11.1980, 18.34 UT, M=6.7); 3-Norfolk (19.06.1980, 08.34 UT, M=6.4); 4-Vanimo (16.07.1980, 05.26 UT, M=7.3); 5-Norfolk (14.07.1980, 16.15 UT, M=6.6). Arrows specify the moments of earthquakes

SPACE & GROUND SEGMENT CONCEPT ALTITUDE 1000 km ALTITUDE 500 km, SSO ALTITUDE 500 km, i=79 DATA PROCESSING CENTER & COORDINATING AND ANALITICAL CENTER STATE CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTIONS

Conclusions Early Warning Systems (EWS) are necessary for minimizing risks of global and local hazards by taking decisions in the proper time Building inventories, identifying and monitoring indicators and assessing environmental conditions are prerequisites for vulnerability assessments Satellite systems provide important information source for EWS. The technology is improving on daily basis. However, ground monitoring may prove effective in some cases. Research is required Responsibilities of establishing EWS is shared among NGO, governments, communities and individuals