Grain Price Trends, Now and Future

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
2012 Market Price Outlook Monsanto Grower Meeting Clarion, Iowa
Advertisements

2011 Crop Market Outlook Coleman Research Group Presentation
Crop and Feed Outlook for 2012
Ag Market Outlook for 2012 Iowa Chapter of NAMA Meeting
Crop Outlook Farm Management In-Service Ames, Iowa Oct. 11, 2010
Crop Market Outlook Crop Management Clinic Ames, Iowa July 13, 2017
Crop Market Outlook 2015 & 2016 Northwest Iowa Research Farm Field Day
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist
Corn Market Outlook Midwest/Great Plains Outlook Conference
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist
Ag Marketing for Beginning Farmers
Grains Outlook for 2012 Insuring Iowa’s Agriculture Workshop
Ag. Outlook for st Farm Credit Services Meetings
2011 Crop Market Outlook ISU Extension Farm Management In-Service
Crop Markets Philippines Harvest Tour of Iowa Ames, Iowa Oct. 20, 2011
Crop Outlook for 2012 Ackley State Bank Ag Seminar Iowa Falls, Iowa
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist
2012 Grain Market Outlook 2012 Weather & Market Outlook Seminars
Corn Outlook Midwest, Great Plains, & Western Outlook Conference
2012 Agricultural Outlook Pioneer Growers Meeting Ireton, Iowa
Corn and Soybean Outlook
2012 Crop Market Price Outlook
2012 Market Price Outlook ISU Northern Research Farm Meeting
Corn & Soybean Markets Ag Management and Marketing Seminar
2011 Grain Market Outlook Soil Management & Land Valuation Conference 2011 Ames, Iowa May 11, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist.
Crop Outlook Beginning Farmer Network Meeting Ames, Iowa Oct. 4, 2010
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist
2013 Crop Market Outlook ISU Extension Farm Management In-service
Crop Market Outlook for 2016 and Beyond
2011 Crop Market Outlook Coleman Research Group Presentation
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist
Current Feed Situation and Outlook
Corn Situation and Outlook
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Crop & Biofuel Outlook for 2012
Crop Outlook Iowa Institute for Coops Annual Meeting Ames, Iowa
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist
Feed and Livestock Prices
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
2013/14 Crop Market Outlook 27th Annual Tri-State Agricultural Lenders Seminar Dubuque, IA Oct. 30, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist.
Ag Market Outlook for 2012/13 25th Annual Iowa Hawkeye Farm Show
2013/14 Crop Market Outlook Insuring Iowa’s Agriculture Ames, IA
2012 Crop Market Outlook Coleman Research Group Presentation
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
How Do You Like Your Markets, Wet or Dry?
Corn & Soybean Outlook AAEA San Francisco, California July 28, 2015
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist
Crop Market Outlook Iowa Institute for Cooperatives Meeting Ames, Iowa
2012 Crop Market Outlook Women in Ag Marketing Meeting
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
2012 Crop Outlook ISU Extension/Fulton Insurance Marketing Meeting
Corn & Soybean Outlook Central Iowa Farm Business Association Annual Meeting Paton, Iowa Aug. 4, 2015 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist.
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
2013 Crop Market Outlook Women Grain Marketing Meeting Hampton, Iowa
Marketing Crops Iowa Farm Bureau’s 2012 Young Farmers Conference
The Burden of Large Supplies
Grain Market Update Crop Advantage Series Waterloo and Iowa City, Iowa
Outlook in Crop Markets for 2012
Crop & Biofuel Outlook for 2012
Crop Market Outlook Think Tank for Animal Agriculture Ames, Iowa
Economics of Crop Production
Crop Market Outlook for 2012
2012 Crop Market Outlook NW Iowa Farm Business Association Meeting
Presentation transcript:

Grain Price Trends, Now and Future Central Iowa Farm Business Association Annual Meeting Ft. Dodge, Iowa August 2, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.0 86.4 88.2 92.3 Yield (bu./acre) 153.9 164.7 152.8 158.7 Production (mil. bu.) 12,092 13,092 12,447 13,470 Beg. Stocks 1,624 1,673 1,708 880 Imports 14 8 30 20 Total Supply 13,729 14,774 14,185 14,370 Feed & Residual 5,182 5,140 5,000 5,050 Ethanol 3,709 4,568 5,150 Food, Seed, & Other 1,316 1,371 1,380 1,400 Exports 1,849 1,987 1,875 1,900 Total Use 12,056 13,066 13,305 13,500 Ending Stocks 870 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.06 3.55 5.25 6.00 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 Area Planted (mil. acres) 75.7 77.5 77.4 75.2 Yield (bu./acre) 39.7 44.0 43.5 43.4 Production (mil. bu.) 2,967 3,359 3,329 3,225 Beg. Stocks 205 138 151 200 Imports 13 15 Total Supply 3,185 3,512 3,495 3,440 Crush 1,662 1,752 1,650 1,655 Seed & Residual 106 108 125 115 Exports 1,279 1,501 1,520 1,495 Total Use 3,047 3,361 3,295 3,265 Ending Stocks 175 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.97 9.59 11.35 13.00 3 3

Corn Area Source: USDA-NASS

Soybean Area Source: USDA-NASS

Crop Conditions Source: USDA-NASS

Crop Conditions & Corn Yields

Crop Conditions & Soybean Yields

World Corn Production Source: USDA 9 9

Corn – Argentina & Brazil Source: USDA 10 10

World Soybean Production Source: USDA 11 11

Soybeans – Argentina & Brazil Source: USDA 12 12

Exchange Rates (Jan. 2003 = 1) Source: USDA, ERS

Export Pace vs. Last Year Source: USDA, FAS

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

Soy Advance Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

Soy Advance Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

Nearby Futures (Jan. 3, 2011 = 1) 21 21

Ethanol Margin Source: CARD

Ethanol Blending Advantage

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

Corn Prices vs. Costs

Soybean Prices vs. Costs

Input Costs Source: USDA, Agricultural Prices, July 29, 2011

Thoughts for 2011 and Beyond General economic conditions Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices Debt limit, US credit rating US job recovery, European financial concerns, Chinese inflation Supply/demand concerns Prevented planting, flooding, heat wave, nighttime temps? Biofuel growth and energy demand Will supply be able to keep pace with demand? 2010/11: USDA: Corn $5.25, Soy $11.35 2011/12: USDA: Corn $6.00, Soy $13.00 Futures (as of 8/1/2011): Corn $6.64, Soy $13.24

Price Projections Source: USDA

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/