Bootstrapping Public Administration and Policy

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Bootstrapping Public Administration and Policy PAD634 Judgment and Decision Making Behavior Bootstrapping Thomas R. Stewart, Ph.D. Center for Policy Research Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany State University of New York T.STEWART@ALBANY.EDU Copyright © Thomas R. Stewart

Bootstrapping Start with judgment analysis of judge. Use regression model of judge instead of judge. If G is positive, and C is low, accuracy of the model will be greater than the original judgments. Bootstrapping.ppt

Evaluation When can bootstrapping be used? Under what conditions will bootstrapping provide more accurate forecasts than unaided judgment? (See Armstrong 2001) Bootstrapping.ppt

Literature Goldberg, L. R. (1970). Man versus model of man: A rationale, plus some evidence, for a method of improving on clinical Inferences. Psychological Bulletin, 73(6), 422-432. Camerer, C. (1981). General conditions for the success of bootstrapping models. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 27, 411-422. Armstrong, J. S. (2001). Judgmental bootstrapping: Inferring experts' rules for forecasting. In J. S. Armstrong (Ed.), Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners (pp. 171-192). Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Bootstrapping.ppt