Climate change mash-ups Michael Saunby Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change September 2007 © Crown copyright 2007

Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change Branch of the Met Office (The United Kingdom’s national meteorological service)‏ Opened in 1990. Moved from Bracknell to Exeter in 2004. “The Hadley Centre has the highest concentration of absolutely outstanding people who do absolutely outstanding work, spanning the breadth of modelling, attribution, and data analysis, of anywhere in the world.” Dr Susan Solomon, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Co-chair IPCC AR4 WG1 Met Office was established in 1854 by Admiral FitzRoy (of HMS Beagle fame). To protect shipping and mariners. Now owned by the MOD and operating as a Trading Fund. Also known in aviation circles as WAFC London. The only other world area forecast centre in WAFC Washington (actually in Missouri). Employs about 1800 staff, most based at Exeter HQ. © Crown copyright 2007

Land areas are projected to warm more than the oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudes Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1oC © Crown copyright 2007

How quickly the climate changes in future depends on Predicting Climate Change How quickly the climate changes in future depends on How much greenhouse gas emissions grow depends on population growth, energy use, new technologies, etc. How sensitive the climate system is to emissions how clouds, ice, oceans etc. respond to the extra heating There are many questions around climate change and many drivers. But what do we mean by the climate system? What questions are we able to answer? Attribution, mitigation, and adaptation Uncertainty Advise government on climate change Focus for national research Threats and impacts of climate change Shorter time scales © Crown copyright 2007

Projections of Climate Change © Crown copyright 2007

Predicting Climate Change EMISSIONS Scenarios from population, energy, economics models Carbon cycle and chemistry models Gas properties Coupled climate models Regional climate models Impacts models CONCENTRATIONS CO2, methane, etc. Feedbacks HEATING EFFECT ‘Climate Forcing’. CLIMATE CHANGE Temp, rain, sea-level, etc. At present generate approx. 1TByte of climate model output (1000 GByte) per day! Feedbacks REGIONAL DETAIL Local effects, extremes IMPACTS Flooding, food supply, etc. © Crown copyright 2007 6

Impact of 2x CO2 on plant productivity Impacts Uncertainty Impact of 2x CO2 on plant productivity Mean change Uncertainty range -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 Difference between 95th and 5th percentiles © Crown copyright 2007

Changes in water stress between 1971-2000 and 2071-2100 Large areas show increasing water stress throughout 21st century © Crown copyright 2007

Human health – modelled low level ozone Current low-level Ozone concentration Yellow, orange & red colours highlight concentrations above 60ppb – the WHO 8 hr exposure dose guideline Future ozone concentrations projected to rise above WHO guideline level in many (esp. highly populated) locations Future low-level Ozone concentration – 2090s © Crown copyright 2007 9

Number of people flooded by 2050s due to sea level rise and population change Largest increases in number of people flooded (>2 million per year) expected in Bangladesh, south-east India and east coast of China Figure Courtesy of Betts and Best 2004 (Betwixt)‏ © Crown copyright 2007

Let’s mash it up! When enough people can collect, re-use and distribute public sector information, people organise around it in new ways, creating new enterprises and new communities... In the past, only large companies, government or universities were able to re-use and recombine information. Now, the ability to mix and 'mash' data is far more widely available. (Mayo and Steinberg, 2007)‏ http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/newsroom/news_releases/2007/070625_info_res.asp © Crown copyright 2007

www.metoffice.gov.uk Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy Road Exeter Devon EX1 3PB United Kingdom © Crown copyright 2007. This work is the intellectual property of the Met Office. Permission is granted for this material to be shared for non-commercial, educational purposes, provided that this copyright statement appears on the reproduced materials and notice is given that copying is by permission of the Met Office. To disseminate otherwise or to republish required written permission from the Met Office. © Crown copyright 2007