Stephen Farrall (CCR, Sheffield Univ). 2nd February 2017, Oxford Univ. Exploring the Long Term Effects of ‘Thatcherite’ Social and Economic Policies for Crime Stephen Farrall (CCR, Sheffield Univ). 2nd February 2017, Oxford Univ.

Outlining this evening’s talk Project motivations. How were crime rates related to Thatcherite social and economic policies? What happened when crime rates rose? Towards a conclusion …

I Project motivations. 24/02/2019 © The University of Sheffield

“Neo-liberalism, Neo-liberalism, Neo-liberalism …” 24/02/2019 © The University of Sheffield

Great Theories, But … Little reference to specific policies or political administrations. “Rather too top down” (Loader & Sparks, 2004:17); insufficiently “anchored in politics”, (Feeley, 2003:117). Neo-liberalism (or modernity) treated as the main causal (what about neo-conservatism?).

Great Theories, But … Pushing into the background the role of specific social and political actors. ‘Late modernity’ too vague (implies a periodisation of process which may not yet be complete). Focus on middle class – little mention of working class.

II How were crime rates related to Thatcherite social and economic policies? 24/02/2019 © The University of Sheffield

Figure 1: Property Crime Per Capita (Home Office Recorded Statistics and BCS) Thatcher’s period in office Major’s period in office

Which policies are we most interested in? Economic policies Housing policies Social security (esp. after 1986) Education policies (esp. after 1988)

Economic Changes During the 1970s there was a move away from the commitment to Keynesian policies and full employment. Dramatic economic restructuring overseen by Thatcher governments. Consequently, levels of unemployment rose through the 1980s (see Fig 2).

Figure 2: Unemployment Rate (%), 1970-2006 Thatcher’s period in office Major’s period in office

Economic Changes This in turn led to increases in levels of inequality (Figure 3), augmented by changes in taxation policies which favoured the better off.

Figure 3: Income Inequality (Gini coefficient), 1970-2006 Thatcher’s period in office Major’s period in office

The Economy and Crime in Post-War Britain Using time series analyses for 1961-2006 Jennings et al (2012) find statistically significant relationships for: 1: the unemployment rate on the rate of property crime (consistent with other studies), 2: we also find that the crime-economy link strengthened during this period. 3: (economic inequality just outside bounds of significance).

Housing Policy 1980 Housing Act (+ others): created RTB – saw a huge rise in owner-occupation. Created residualisation of council housing; transient/marginalised residents with low levels of employment (Murie, 1997).

Housing Residualisation   1982* 1984 1988** 1992*** 1994 1996^ 1998 A: Unemployment BCS owners 3 4 2 BCS social renters 7 9 10 11 6 B: Low income BSAS owners 40 41 34 39 42 33 BSAS social renters 70 76 74 81 C: Adjacent to rundown stock - 1 8 D: High Turnover areas 13 12

Impact on Domestic Property Crime I (pre-RTB)  GHS data (ever in past yr) 1972 1973 1980 Owners 2 Renters 3  GHS data (N in past yr) 1972 1973 1980 Owners (mean) .0219 .02 Social renters (mean) .0395 .04 Mean difference .0175 .018 Sig *** **

Impact on Domestic Property Crime II (post-RTB)  BCS (ever in past yr) 1982 1984 1988 1992 1994 1996 1998 Owners 8 9 11 10 Social renters 13 12  BCS (N in pt yr) 1982 1984 1988 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Owners (mean) .1298 .1385 .1383 .1387 .1724 .1483 .1473 .1198 Soc rent (mean) .2190 .1909 .2421 .3180 .3412 .3144 .288 Mean difference .0891 .0573 .1037 .1034 .1455 .1928 .1670 .1685 Sig *** **

Impact on Domestic Property Crime Complex initial situation of course (see Baldwin and Bottoms, 1976), however RTB contributed to concentration of social and economic need. …and then to the concentration of crime (Farrall et al 2016, BJC).

Social Security 1980-1985: Some tinkering with the DHSS. 1986 Social Security Act based on Fowler Review. Following this payments reduced for many individual benefits claimants (whilst total spend increased due to unemployment).

Social Security Evidence to suggest that reductions in government expenditure are associated with rises in crime during the 1980s (Reilly and Witt, 1992). Jennings et al (2012) suggest that increases in welfare spending is associated with declines in the property crime rate.

Education Changes in education policies encouraged schools to exclude children in order to improve place in league tables. Exclusions rose during the 1990s, reaching a peak of 12,668 in 1996-97.

Education Dumped on the streets this fuelled ASB (Home Office RDS Occ. Paper No. 71). The BCS 1992-2006 shows sudden jump of people reporting “teens hanging around” to be a problem from an average of 8% before 2001 to 30% after 2002. School exclusions helped to create Labour’s discourse of ASB and need for C&DA 1998.

A ‘Social Storm’ of Harm? A dynamic factor analysis (1982-2007) of these data: Retail Price Index Unemployment rate Gini Divorce, Suicide and Abortion rates Housing Repossessions Children taken into care

A ‘Social Storm’ of Harm? Is positively associated with BCS data for … The N of ALL crimes The N of property crimes The N of violent crimes The N of victims The N of property victims The N of violence victims

III What happened when crime rates rose? 24/02/2019 © The University of Sheffield

What happened to crime (etc)? Rise in crime (Fig 5). This was generally rising before 1979, but the rate of increase picked up after early 1980s and again in early 1990s. Fear of crime rises (tracks recorded crime rates, Fig 6). Levels of punitive sentiment rise (tracks recorded crime rates, Fig 7).

Figure 5: Property Crime Per Capita (Home Office Recorded Statistics and BCS)

Figure 6: Percentage worried about crime (BCS 1982-2005)

Fig 7: Punitive opinion* (excluding the death penalty) and recorded crime in England and Wales, 1980-2013 *Based on eight CSE&W and BSAS items relating to sentencing, CJS doing a good job, obeying the law (but excluding those relating to the death penalty).

What have Govts done?

Developments post-1993 Howard (Home Sec 1993-97) talks and acts tough. Prison population rises immediately; rise in average sentence lengths. Due also to stricter enforcement and mandatory minimum sentences (aimed at burglars and drug traffickers). Prison population grew by 2.5% p.a. from 1945 to 1995, but by 3.8% p.a. 1995-2009 (MoJ, 2009: 4).

Thatcher’s CJS Legacy

Our Time Series Modelling … suggests that the rate of incarceration has a negative impact on the property crime rate.

Labour Party’s Response Move to the political right. ‘Tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime’. Focus on ‘young offenders’ (Sch Exclusions related to?). Did not oppose Crime (Sentences) Act 1997 despite it being quite draconian (‘3 strikes’, minimum mandatory sentences).

Labour In Government Needed to do something about crime because … a) it actually was a problem (peak was in 1994) but still a source of public concern b) they needed to be seen to be doing something to avoid being accused of having ‘gone soft on crime again’.

IV Towards a Conclusion. 24/02/2019 © The University of Sheffield

(not just neo-liberalism) Towards a Conclusion Thatcherism was a mix of both neo-liberal and neo-conservative instincts. Changes which were driven by neo-liberal instincts (housing, employment, social security and education) led to rises in crime. Rises in crime increased punitiveness amongst public/politicians (and with a neo-conservative mind-set this meant ‘tougher’ prison sentences). (not just neo-liberalism)

Towards a Conclusion Therefore Thatcher did have a legacy for crime and the criminal justice system. Includes crime rise in 1980s-1990s, changes in public sentiments about crime in 1990s and early 2000s, and a ‘toughened’ CJS. The creation of a new ‘consensus’ on crime. Neo-liberalism only part of the story. As with social attitudes, probably needed Blair’s acquiescence for this to ossify.

Outline of Future Work New ESRC project (2017-2020). Using two longitudinal data sets; the Birth Cohort Study (BCS70) and National Child Development Study (1958 births) to explore if there are any cohort effects for ‘Thatcher’s Children’. Will also run our own survey to assess relevance of Thatcherite ideology today. Two PhD studentships as part of this (please do apply!). Will also make short film for teaching purposes.