Volume 4, Issue 6, Pages (June 2017)

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Volume 4, Issue 6, Pages 461-468 (June 2017) Identification of low risk of violent crime in severe mental illness with a clinical prediction tool (Oxford Mental Illness and Violence tool [OxMIV]): a derivation and validation study Prof Seena Fazel, MD, Achim Wolf, MSc, Prof Henrik Larsson, PhD, Prof Paul Lichtenstein, PhD, Susan Mallett, DPhil, Thomas R Fanshawe, PhD The Lancet Psychiatry Volume 4, Issue 6, Pages 461-468 (June 2017) DOI: 10.1016/S2215-0366(17)30109-8 Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Violent crime over a 12 month period in different populations by sex *Data taken from the general population sample in Fazel and colleagues.1 The Lancet Psychiatry 2017 4, 461-468DOI: (10.1016/S2215-0366(17)30109-8) Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Model discrimination in the (A) derivation and (B) external validation samples The Lancet Psychiatry 2017 4, 461-468DOI: (10.1016/S2215-0366(17)30109-8) Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 3 Predicted and observed risks of violent crime in the (A) derivation and (B) external validation samples Individuals are grouped by predicted probability, numbers are the number of individuals in each grouping, and error bars are 95% CIs for the proportion of events in each group. The Lancet Psychiatry 2017 4, 461-468DOI: (10.1016/S2215-0366(17)30109-8) Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 4 Observed and predicted risk of violent crime in severe mental illness NPV=negative predictive value. PPV=positive predictive value. The Lancet Psychiatry 2017 4, 461-468DOI: (10.1016/S2215-0366(17)30109-8) Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions