Amplified Eurasian springtime warming from snow darkening

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Presentation transcript:

Amplified Eurasian springtime warming from snow darkening Mark Flanner

Large model sensitivity to snow darkening Flanner et al. (2007), J. Geophys. Res. Do observations support this?

Springtime susceptibility to snow changes Land-based snow reflectance changes exert greatest influence on Earth's energy budget during March-April - also when snow-albedo feedback is strongest

Springtime trends in temp and snow cover 1979-2007 warming rate is 3x greater over Eurasia than North America. Snow cover loss over: Eurasia: ~14% North America: ~7%

Springtime T and SCE trends Eurasia North America March-May averages over land north of 30°

IPCC Model Predictions Springtime temperature trends Springtime snow cover trends Top: Eurasia Bottom: North America

Snow darkening from atmospheric aerosols Prognostic transport of black carbon and mineral dust, deposition to snow (SNICAR model) Time-evolving BC emissions [Bond et al., 2007] 1979-2000 Surface forcing over springtime snow: Eurasia: +3.9 W/m2 North America: +1.2 W/m2

Modeled springtime climate trends Springtime temperature trends Springtime snow cover trends Blue: CAM/CLM without snow darkening Green: CAM/CLM with snow darkening

Springtime warming trends GISS temperature analysis CRU temperature analysis CAM/CLM without snow darkening CAM/CLM with snow darkening (5-member ensembles with forced SSTs and sea-ice)

Warming vs. SCE decline Simulated warming and snow cover loss rates are correlated, but observations show greater snow loss / warming ratio than any model predictions (over 1979-2000)

Snowfall trends Snowfall biases contribute to snow cover biases over North America, but probably not over Eurasia

Conclusions Springtime Eurasia has warmed more rapidly than North America (since 1979) IPCC AR4 models (including those with forced SSTs and sea-ice) tend to predict similar warming rates over both continents 21 of 22 models underpredict Eurasian warming Hypothesis: Snow darkening is contributing to greater warming over Eurasia, where BC and dust emissions are greater We estimate 3x greater springtime snow darkening over Eurasia (3.9 W/m2) CAM/CLM experiments support hypothesis, but do not resolve snow cover trend bias observed in all AR4 models