Climate Change Impacts on Water Quality Do we need research on chemical indicators in the light of on-going policy developments? Philippe QUEVAUVILLER European Commission DG Research Directorate I ‘Environment’

Why bothering thinking about climate change? Uncertainties increase when aspects other than temperature increase are modelled, for example rainfall as shown in the above. Shows winter (left) and summer (right) rainfall at the end of the century relative to the start, and also gives an indication of the level of agreement or disagreement between different models. (In general at the global scale, since the overall circulation patterns are not expected to change, wet areas (e.g. ITCZ/equatorial) will get wetter and dry areas (e.g. tropics) will get drier – although there are many complexities (e.g. how El Nino/La Nina change, what happens to storm tracks across UK). Note here that it is important for us to understand the range of results from different GCMs in order to take a risk based approach to adaptation. UKCIP08 will do this – suggest adding some outputs from UKCIP08 at this point once released in November IPCC Ar4

Regional rainfall projections ANN DJF JJA Changes in precipitation by the 2080s (top) and the number of models (out of 21) that project wetter conditions (lower panel). Source: IPCC AR4 (2007)

Global Drivers of Change: interactions Climate rainfall Land cover GHGs Water Resources food fuel GHGs Population, Increasing consumption From Richard Harding, Centre of Ecology & Hydrology (WATCH)

But: there is considerable uncertainty We know there will be changes in rainfall regimes (it is arguable there already have) but the detail is unclear There is good agreement that: Globally rainfall will increase Nearly everywhere temperatures will increase Extremes will increase Generally dry areas get drier and wet wetter Sea level will rise There is not good agreement: Rainfall trends in many regions of the world The magnitude of the changes are uncertain Different hydrological models give different responses to rainfall drivers

Climate change impacts on water Source: EEA

+ WFD Parent legislation RBMP – 2009/2015 Adopted on 20.12.2000 (e.g. Flood Directive) Anticipating – Feeding with research outputs linked to well defined Poliy milestones River basin districts Delineation water bodies 2005 Analysis of pressures and impacts 2005 Classification of bodies ‘at risk’ Design of monitoring Programmes 2006 Account of classification: Surveillance monitoring Operational monitoring (+ investigative monitoring) 6 years cycle / Review RBMP – 2009/2015 GOOD STATUS OBJECTIVE Programmes of Measures 2012

River Basin Management Will we be able to evaluate CC impacts on water quality and how? River Basin Management bio-physical system D R societal system P P S S S I S Base sketch from Meade (1996) and DPSIR from EEA

Looking at different sectors – Integrated knowledge?

Impacts on water uses? Industrial uses abstraction Agricultural uses discharges Agricultural uses abstraction diffuse discharges Source: Ministry of the environment, Québec, Canada Urban uses drinking water supply wastewater treatment Recreational / ecological uses angling bathing...

Ecotoxicity for benthic organisms ? Impacts on pathways and toxical impacts of chemicals, hence on quality standards? Log Kow Log Kow Kp (equilibrium partitioning) BMF 2 “Dissolved” (0.45 µm filtered) Adsorbed on SPM Waterborne uptake BCF BMF 1 Secondary poisoning ? Ecotoxicity for benthic organisms ? Turbation Sedimentation Dietary intake Historic pollution

Climate change in the context of RBMP River basin management plans should enable to tackle the climate change issues: Clear objectives Cyclical (with possibility for technical reviews) Management of pressures, including climate-related ones Development of partnership/networking Links with flood risks and land use planning Integration of cost figures through economic analysis Integration of climate change into RBM means: Adapting monitoring programmes Reviewing pressures and impacts analyses Design tailor-made programmes of measures

Some principles tackled at policy level Anticipating changes to water bodies (both qualitatively and quantitatively) and how this affects WFD objectives Understanding the extent and causes of variability and changes (e.g. regarding reference conditions) Assessing direct and indirect influences on pressures due to climate change Identifying and closely monitoring climate change “hot spots” Favouring options that are robust to the uncertainty in climate projections Testing for compatibility of actions with wider adaptation and mitigation objectives Integrating cross-sectoral delivery of adaptation measures Demonstrating integrated adaptation through representative case studies

EU white paper on adaptation The proposed EU framework adopts a phased approach: Phase 1 (2009-2012) to prepare an EU comprehensive adaptation strategy to be implemented in 2012 (Phase 2). Phase 1 will focus on four pillars of action: 1) building a solid knowledge base, 2) integrating adaptation into key policy areas; 3) employing a combination of policy instruments (market-based instruments, guidelines, public-private partnerships…) and 4) strengthening international co-operation on adaptation.

Scientific Challenges I Climate change and water results Science River Basin Management Plans Information Knowledge Modelling Uncertainty Impacts and vulnerability Different types of integration Spatial & waterbodies Impacts (hydrology, temperature) Sectors (e.g. hydropower, reservoirs) Source: EEA

Scientific challenges II Adaptation to climate change or Take climate change impact into account in measures Water resource management Flood risk management Drought management plans Water quality management/ pollution control Climate checking of PoMs (Programmes of Measures) Impacts and vulnerability Source: EEA

Tackling scientific challenges through FP7 FP 7 has been organised in Specific Programmes. They constitute the five major building blocks of FP7: Cooperation Ideas People Capacities Nuclear Research The core of FP7, representing 2/3 of the overall budget, is the Cooperation programme. It fosters collaborative research across Europe and other partner countries through projects by transnational consortia of industry and academia. Research will be carried out in ten key thematic areas, including Environment (including climate change)

Some figures Total FP7 budget: 50.521 bn € (current prices) Total budget for Environment Theme 1.89 bn € Indicative breakdown: Slight increase of budget in 2008, 2009 compared to 2007 Sharp increase only from 2011 In 2013 expenditure 60% higher than in 2006 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 225 224 229 233 246 281 318 356

Environment (including Climate Change) Main drivers: International commitments, protocols, initiatives concluded by the EU and its Member States Existing and emerging EU environmental legislation and policies Implementation of the 6th Environmental Action programme, associated thematic strategies and the action plans Climate and environmental change, their consequences and the link to energy

Environment (including Climate Change) Activities and sub-activities Climate change, pollution and risks Pressures on environment and climate Environment and health Natural hazards Sustainable Management of Resources Conservation and sustainable management of natural and man-made resources and biodiversity Management of marine environments

Environment (including Climate Change) Activities and sub-activities Environmental Technologies Environmental technologies for observation, simulation, prevention, mitigation, adaptation, remediation and restoration of the natural and man-made environment Protection, conservation and enhancement of cultural heritage including human habitat Technology assessment, verification and testing Earth observation and assessment tools for sustainable development Earth and ocean observation systems and monitoring methods for the environment and sustainable development Forecasting methods and assessment tools for sustainable development, taking into account differing scales of observation

The WATCH Integrated Project Example The WATCH Integrated Project Analyse and describe the current global water cycle Evaluate how the global water cycle and its extremes respond to future drivers of global change Evaluate feedbacks in the coupled system as they affect the global water cycle Evaluate the uncertainties in the predictions Develop a modelling and data framework to assess the future vulnerability of water as a resource

Environment (including Climate Change) Other examples Flood risk assessment, prevention, preparedness Large scale project: FLOODsite Research on Flash Floods (FLASH, IMPRINTS) Research on Urban Floods (Int. cooperation dimension) Understanding climate change impacts Research on CC impacts on water quality and quantity in vulnerable mountain environments (ACQWA) Assessment of CC impacts in the Mediterranean, including on water resources (CIRCE) + Assessment or research needs and policy options in the area of drought (XEROCHORE)

As a conclusion, basic question: do we need research on CC impacts on water quality? Evaluation of CC impacts on chemical pathways? e.g. transformation of chemicals (speciation), degradation patterns, toxical impacts, bio-uptake etc. Impacts on predictive assessments? e.g. influence of environmental co-stressors, additional inputs (change of physico-chemical conditions with subsequent release), synergies etc. Consequences for “reference conditions” e.g. baseline shift with impacts on EQS, monitoring design, adaptation measures etc. Can we identify specific ‘chemical indicators’ related to climate change?