Population forecast of Anhui Province Based on GM(1,1) model GSUA 2016 Population forecast of Anhui Province Based on GM(1,1) model Hong Gao, Xiaoru Kang , Tianxiang Yao Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

Abstract This paper firstly did some statistical analysis of current population in Anhui province, then built GM(1,1) models respectively on the basis of the total population

1 Introduction There is a large amount of population in Anhui, which accounts for a large proportion of the country. It suffers from the imbalance between men and women, and the population sex ratio over the years has been beyond the normal range.

2 The current population of Anhui province The first stage is 1980-1991 years. The total population shows a linear upward trend, and the growth rate is stable and bigger. The second stage is 1992-1999 years. In this period of time, Anhui's population growth rate is still stable, showing a linear growth trend, but the growth rate has decreased over the previous ten years. The third stage is from 2000 to the present. The total population of Anhui Province is relatively stable, floating around 60 million.

The current population age structure There were six national population censuses being carried out so far. Because more distant history data is insignificant to future age structure development, so nearly four censuses age structure were compared and analyzed in this paper. Table 2-1 is the evolution of population age structure in Anhui Province. It shows the classification of the international population structure and nearly four censuses of the children's coefficient, the elderly, the young and old ratio, the median in Anhui. Comparing The table on the right of each data with the left of the international criteria for the classification, we can find that Anhui Province belonged to the adult type in early 1982, and its all indicators were in the adult standards in 1990, at the beginning of 2000 involved in an aged society, completely being an aged society in 2010.

3 The population forecast in Anhui Province

4 Conclusion and Suggestions (a) To control the population scale appropriately (b) To improve the social security system (c) To strengthen the propaganda of "gender equality" to weaken the "patriarchal" phenomenon (d) To further improve the quality of the population

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