DSR Volumetrics Workgroup 3 10 September 2014

Background Following a request from the DSR workgroup we have created some volumetric’s to show how much potential demand reduction could be available on any one day for DSR The analysis reflects a mixture of data requested from each of the distribution networks and from National Grids systems Only Daily Metered(DM) sites that have a system offtake quantity (SOQ) of above 2 million therms per annum are included Gas fired generation are currently excluded

Scenarios / Assumptions For the purpose of these volumetric’s we have created a base scenario (assumption) for each site this is equal to 50% of their (SOQ) figure. We believe this provides an overall more realistic assumption for the available volume OCM minimum trade size (100,000 kWh) – i.e if the volume in any scenario drops below this the site is excluded in that scenario Scenarios used: Base - 50% of SOQ figures 50% of Base Available 20% of Base Available 10% of Base Available 5% of Base Available

Analysis Example All figures shown are in GWh (0.100 is the minimum OCM trade) Names DM SOQ Base Scenario 50% Scenario 20% Scenario 10% Scenario 5% Scenario Site 1 6.60 3.30 1.65 0.66 0.33 0.17 Site 2 2 1 0.50 0.20 0.10 0.05 Site 3 1.13 0.56 0.28 0.11 0.06 0.03

Estimated DSR Volume Availability Scenarios Estimated Volume Available (GWh) Number of sites Base - 50% of SOQ figures 240 423 50% of Base Available 108 260 20% of Base Available 34 109 10% of Base Available 13 55 5% of Base Available 4 19

Estimated DSR Volume Availability

Potential DSR Availability (sites)