Grower, Handler, and Shipper of California Almonds

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Presentation transcript:

Grower, Handler, and Shipper of California Almonds

Bearing Acreage 000’s of acres Bearing acreage has doubled since 2007. We will harvest 1.07 million acres for 2018. *2019 projected increase of 124,000 acres has never been done before. By 2020 over 1,2MM acres will be bearing. As long as almonds remain profitable, farmers will grow them.

California Almond Shipments and Crop Receipts Supply is now under pressure from world demand, we will ship more than what was harvested in 2017. Larger crops are a necessity to keep pace with demand *10 year average yield equals 2,216 lbs. per acre

Supply and Demand 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Carry-In 317 350 376 412 398 *352 Crop 2,010 1,868 1,895 2,136 2,260 **2,450 Marketable 1,970 1,839 1,847 2,087 2,215 2,401 Total Supply 2,287 2,188 2,223 2,499 2,614 2,753 Shipments 1,937 1,812 1,811 2,101 *2,262 2,326 Carry-Out 352 427 Lbs./Acre 2,364 2,147 2,129 2,272 2,250 **2,290 Supply Growth 11.5% -4% - 13% 5% 8.41% Consumption 3.8% -6.4% 16% 7.0% 2.0 % Carry-In as % of Shipments 16.37% 19.4% 20.7% 19.6% 15.6% 18.4 % Bearing Acres 850,000 870,000 890,000 940,000 1,000,000 1,070,000 *estimate shipments based on current projection **Objective Estimate

Supply Scenario’s for 2018 to 2019 Revised to reflect other possible crop sizes 2018 2019 Carry-In *352 427 Crop **2,450 **2,645 Marketable 2,401 2592 Total Supply 2,753 3,019 Shipments 2,326 2576 Carry-Out 443 Lbs./Acre **2,290 2,336 Supply Growth 8.41% 8.8 % Consumption 2.0 % 9.7 % Carry-out as % of Shipments 18.4 % 17.2 % Bearing Acres 1,070,000 1,194,000 **Objective Estimate *Assumes shipments of 2,280 billion for 2017 crop year, leaving a carry-out of 334 million pounds. **Based on objective estimate of 2,290 lbs. per acre.

Historical Pricing – Standard 5% Almond prices rose during the drought years peaking in late 2014. This corrected in 2015 with one of the largest drops seen in 20 years. Market levels have remained very stable since then.

Historical Pricing – NPS 23/25 February Freeze Almond demand continued during the drought years peaking in late 2014. Price ceiling was reached in 2015 with a large correction not seen in 20 years. Market levels have remained very stable since then. Lesson learned?

Driving Consumers to Plant Based Foods: Consumption Behavior Global Consumer Trends: Vegetable Based Proteins, Natural, Nutritious and Healthy Eating Driving Consumers to Plant Based Foods: Global Dairy Alternatives $19.5 Billion by 2020 US Dairy Alternative growth US Nutritional Bar market +$5 Billion Protein and Weight control beverages Almond Board Promotional and Advertising budget $58.6 Million for Crop Year 2017 and will continue to grow