Is Schrödinger’s Cat Alive in 2030? Effects of Rolling Dice or Is Schrödinger’s Cat Alive in 2030?

Model Set-Up Socio-Economic Core Model Data Java 3 Iterations Networks 4 Period Highway and Transit Assignments

Discrete Choice Effects Three Ways to Run the Model All Choices, Including Household and Person Files, Are Allowed to Vary Household and Person Files Remain Constant – Tour Generation, Distribution, Mode Choice Vary - Standard Run Household and Person Files, Tour Generation and Distribution Remain Constant – Mode Choice Varies (FTA New Starts Version – No Feedback)

Model Formulation

2030 Model Runs Standard Run – Equilibrium Assignment with Gap=.001 Variable HH Run – Equilibrium Assignment with Gap=.00001

Total VMT - Regular Run

Total VMT - 0.00001 Gap

Total VMT - Variable Run

Total VMT

Freeway VMT

Arterial/Collector VMT

VMT by District

VMT by Ring

VMT by Ring 9

VMT by Sector

Non-Attainment Area

Ozone Redesignation Ran the Model Several Times to Assess the Impacts of Variability Ran the Assignments Through ODOT’s Air Quality Analysis Post-Processor Link Volumes by Hour, by Direction, by Functional Class x Emission Factors

Ozone Redesignation

HC

NOx

CO

PM2.5

What That Means for the Cat No Run Was Off the Final Average for Any Pollutant by More than +/- 0.2%. PM2.5 Was More Variable than HC, NOx, or CO. Number of Equilibrium Iterations Affected the Final Outcome More than the Realization Effects. In Columbus, the Cat is Always Alive in 2030.

Count Coefficient of Variation Sampling Error Inherent in Traffic Counts Coef of Variation = St. Dev. / Mean USDOT’s “Guide to Urban Traffic Counting” Indicates Sampling Error for 24 Hour Counts is: CV = (3.706633/ln(COUNT))-0.264598

Link Coefficient of Variation

Link Coefficient of Variation

Link Coefficient of Variation CVcount = (3.706633/ln(COUNT)) - 0.264598 CVregular = (0.631385/ln(24 Hr Volume)) - 0.059902 CVvariable = (0.258741/ln(24 Hr Volume)) - 0.011584

Link Coefficient of Variation

Link Coefficient of Variation

Link Coefficient of Variation

Mr. Zhuojun Jiang – MORPC 614-233-4147 Ms. Rebekah Anderson – ODOT Photo Credits: JM http://www.logodesignweb.com/stockphoto Scientific American Mr. Zhuojun Jiang – MORPC 614-233-4147 Ms. Rebekah Anderson – ODOT 614-752-5735 Thanks also to Greg Giaimo.