Item 3.2 ESS guidelines on temporal disaggregation by Dario Buono (Eurostat) WG Methodology 5 April 2017

Forewords The Guidelines cover all issues related to Temporal Disaggregation (TD) from annual to quarterly to monthly data, from choice of the methods, through the practice in specific domain, to revisions, quality measurement and documentation. The definition of best practices for TD postponed for a long time since the needs of the methodology harmonization for the indicators which TD mainly apply. The ESS Guidelines on TD present both theoretical aspects and practical implementation issues in a friendly and easy to read framework. Requirements of principle 7 (Sound Methodology) of the ESS Code of Practice, principles 14 (Coherence and Comparability) and 15 (Accessibility and Clarity) are satisfied.

Scope of guidelines Common Guidelines for Temporal Disaggregation within the ESS as essential step for a better harmonization and comparability of infra-annual statistics Each stage of Benchmarking and Reconciliation (B&R) process is explained and options described. Out of these options three alternative courses of action are highlighted: (A) Best alternative (B) Acceptable (C) To be avoided

Guidelines summary PRINCIPLES FOR BENCKMARKING AND RECONCILIATION 1 - POLICY FOR BENCKMARKING AND RECONCILIATION   2 - TEMPORAL DISAGGREGATION   3 - SPECIFIC ISSUES ON BENCKMARKING AND RECONCILIATION  

Guidelines summary   4 – SPECIFIC DOMAINS   5 - REVISION POLICIES   6 - ACCURACY OF BENCKMARKING AND RECONCILIATION

A POLICY FOR BENCKMARKING AND RECONCILIATION Item 1 A POLICY FOR BENCKMARKING AND RECONCILIATION Item 1.1: Principles for benchmarking and reconciliation Item 1.2: The need for domain specific benchmarking and reconciliation policies Item 1.3: Consistency across domain specific benchmarking and reconciliation policies Item 1.4: Stability of benchmarking and reconciliation policies    

TEMPORAL DISAGGREGATION Item 2. 1 Temporal disaggregation Item 2 TEMPORAL DISAGGREGATION Item 2.1 Temporal disaggregation Item 2.2: Alternative methods for benchmarking Item 2.3: Alternative methods for reconciliation Item 2.4: Choice of the software

SPECIFIC ISSUES ON BENCKMARKING AND RECONCILIATION Item 3 SPECIFIC ISSUES ON BENCKMARKING AND RECONCILIATION Item 3.1: Mathematical vs Statistical methods Item 3.2: End of series Item 3.3: Seasonal Adjustment Item 3.4: Flash estimates Item 3.5: Outliers identification and treatment Item 3.6: Short time series Item 3.7: Chain linked series Item 3.8: Selection on one or more proxies  

Specific domain Item 4. 1: Quarterly National Account Item 4 Specific domain Item 4.1: Quarterly National Account Item 4.2: Labour Market  

REVISION POLICIES Item 5 REVISION POLICIES Item 5.1: General revision policy and release calendar

ACCURACY OF BENCKMARKING AND RECONCILIATION Item 6 ACCURACY OF BENCKMARKING AND RECONCILIATION Item 6.1: Accuracy   policy for benchmarking and reconciliation    

High frequency data (weekly or daily) Open points High frequency data (weekly or daily) A detailed procedure description for some relevant domains such as QNA o Labor Market Documenting metadata Data presentation issues Cite the existing tools/plug-in

Roadmap 2017 March, SAEG Initial discussion (some NSIs and NCBs) 2017 April, WG Methodology Discussion (all MS) 2017 May, WG National Accounts (all MS) 2017q3, revised version 2017q4, written consultation 2018, February, DIME/ITDG 2018, ESSC endorsement

Main references Dagum, E.B., and P.A. Cholette (2006), Benchmarking, Temporal Disaggregation, and Reconciliation Methods for Time Series, Springer edition. IMF (2014) Quarterly National Accounts Manual - Concepts, Data Sources, and Compilation, chp.6 Benchmarking and Reconciliation Di Fonzo, T., and M. Marini (2012a), “Benchmarking Time Series according to a Growth Rates Preservation Principle,” Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, Vol. 37(3), pp. 225–252.

Main references Di Fonzo, T., and Marini M. (2012b), On the Extrapolation with the Denton Proportional Benchmarking Method, IMF Working Paper Series, WP/12/169.  ESS Guidelines on Seasonal Adjustment (2015) ESS Guidelines on Revision Policy (2013) ESS Handbook on Quarterly National Accounts (2013)