Climate Change and Water Scarcity Eddy Moors January 8th, 2018

Some definitions for this talk Climate change Impacts Options Introduction Some definitions for this talk Climate change Impacts Options

Water scarcity Water scarcity is the lack of sufficient available water resources to meet water needs within a region. It affects every continent and around 2.8 billion people around the world at least one month out of every year. Water scarcity can result from two mechanisms: physical (absolute) water scarcity economic water scarcity Image taken from the internet

Meteorological drought Agro hydrological drought What is a drought? Physical water scarcity Economic water scarcity Precipitation deficit Meteorological drought Evaporation Soil water deficit Agro hydrological drought Surface water deficit Hydrological drought Water demand Soc. Econ. drought Antecedent water storage Groundwater deficit Hydrological drought

Trends: Climate change: CO2 emissions Global Carbon Project: www.globalcarbonproject.org

Mitigation of emissions Energy trends Oil Nuclear Energy generation Coal Gas Wind Fossil PV Solar (see e.g. reneweconomy.com.au & static.cdn-seekingalpha.com)

IPCC: The future climate scenarios (Source: IPCC AR5)

CC impacts (IPCC AR5)

Urbanization Globally 2017 > 50% 2050 > 65% (Source: United Nations)

Groundwater trend (e.g. Iran) ~ -0.5 m per year Groundwater table lowers 0.5 m year

Global Risk Landscape 2018

What is in the news?

Precipitation of Cape Town mm days Source: Modelled data Meteoblue

Crop specific seasonal water demand Shifting precipitation patterns in time and space Crop specific seasonal water demand Shift in melt run off High temperatures Monsoon variability (Source: Biemans et al, 2016)

Other cities other causes São Paulo: 2015 20 days of water supply Bangalore: 85% of the lakes insufficient water quality Beijing: 2015 40% of surface water polluted Cairo: polluted water and expected shortage in 2025 Jakarta: 40% below sea level, no replenishment of aquifers Moscow: 35 – 60% drinking water reserves do not meet sanitation standards Istanbul: 2014 city’s reservoirs declined to <30% of capacity Mexico city: water losses 40%, 40% of its water is imported London: water supply problems by 2025 becoming serious by 2040 Tokyo: rainfall season of 4 months Miami: salt water intrusion Source: BBC 11 February 2018

Ways forward Increase water productivity Restore the sponge function of the soil (aquifer restoration) Water treatment and re-use Drought management …

Water demand … and energy

Production/supply chain: efficiency improvement and demand management 25/02/2019 Production/supply chain: efficiency improvement and demand management Energy efficiency Emission efficiency Product service efficiency Demand management Material efficiency IPCC WGIII AR5 Figure TS.25. A schematic illustration of industrial activity over the supply chain. Options for mitigation in the industry sector are indicated by the circled numbers: (1) energy efficiency; (2) emissions efficiency; (3a) material efficiency in manufacturing; (3b) material efficiency in product design; (4) product-service efficiency; (5) service demand reduction [Figure 10.1]

Key questions: How do we share our waters, now and in the future? Can we provide seasonal drought/scarcity forecasts? Are drought and flood mitigation measures complementary? Can we increase the “sponge” capacity of our landscape? Can we manage our demands? How to engage stakeholders? Differences in perceptions! How do we finance the mitigation measures? Do we have enough time to implement these measures? How do we share our waters, now and in the future?

Global Risk Landscape 2018 Water Crisis

Thank you for your attention