Lesson 5: Short-term Factors Affecting Voting Behaviour Leaning Intentions (Pupils should be able to): Indentify a range of short-term factors that affect voting behaviour. Assess the impact of these short-term factors on voting behaviour at recent elections.

Short-term Factors Affecting Voting Behaviour The numbers of uncommitted voters or ‘floating voters’ is increasing amongst the electorate. As a consequence, a greater proportion of voters are more likely to be influenced by what is known as short-term factors on voting behaviour. Short-term factors include: single issue voting, the image of the party leader and the extent of party unity.

Single Issue Voting In recent years, it has become clear that some voters decide between the parties on single issues e.g. health or education. In the 2005 election, one key single issue was the war in Iraq. In 2010 the economy became the main issue with a number of voters choosing the Conservatives as they were, arguably, seen to have the best policies to handle the on-going economic crisis. Many would argue that Brexit has now become another key “single” issue. Since the onset of current economic crisis, the economy has become the most important single issue of concern to voters. Read pgs 52-56 of the textbook on the blog for more detail on single issue voting.

Knowledge Points: The 2015 General Election was dominated by the economy. Following the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, the UK entered a time of austerity with major cuts to public spending. The Conservatives made it clear that they would continue to pursue a policy of deep government spending cuts in comparison to the Labour Party who campaigned on less severe cuts. A 2015 poll showed that 39% of UK citizens believed the British economy would be better off under a government led by the Conservatives in comparison to just 30% who believed the economy would be better led by the Labour Party. Immigration also became a key issue in this election. Only the Conservatives included a promise in their manifesto to hold a referendum on EU membership upon winning the election. Analysis: Particularly when the economy is a major issue, the party which is deemed to have the best and most stable economic policy will always do far better in an election as is evidenced by the fact that the Conservatives won an outright majority in Parliament in 2015.

Knowledge Points: In June 2016, the referendum on EU membership resulted in a decision to leave the EU by a small margin (51.9% Leave/ 48.1% Remain). Following this, PM Theresa May called an election in an attempt to prove the Conservatives were the appropriate party to led the country through Brexit negotiations and beyond. The snap 2017 General Election was dominated by Brexit. It became clear during the 2017 General Election that no party had the complete trust of the public in regards to Brexit. The Conservatives were dogged by in-fighting on the issue whilst the Labour Party also faced internal issues in regards to Brexit. The Conservatives LOST their majority in Westminster although remain the party in power after forming a minority government. Analysis: when no party has a clear policy base that appeals to the General public it is difficult for either to attract floating voters.

Image of Party Leader Gordon Brown’s image at the 2010 election was generally seen as very poor. He was often described as dour. His unguarded comments describing one lady voter as bigoted are thought to have cost Labour votes. By way of contrast, both David Cameron and Nick Clegg enjoyed high poll ratings which, arguably, helped the Conservatives and Lib. Dems in 2010. Theresa May’s current public image is very poor – do you think this will have an impact on her political career? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kypGOTDoiLI

In Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon is seen as an able and competent politician whose leadership skills have helped secure votes for the SNP in recent elections. But does leadership on its own win elections? Ruth Davidson, Scottish Conservative leader, was widely praised for her election performance in 2015. She spoke well in the debates and many voters commented that they ‘liked her but not her party’. The Scottish Conservatives’ actually vote decreased by 1.8% in the GE 2015. However, the Conservatives in Scotland have seen there vote share increase dramatically under her leadership and they are now the 2nd largest party in the Scottish Parliament.

Knowledge Points The public image of a political party leader can have a massive impact on voting behaviour in the age of 24 hour news and online media both in a positive and a negative way. The 2010 General Election saw Gordon Brown and therefore Labour suffer because of his “dour Scotsman” image and the direct impact of “bigotgate”. When Labour failed to claim a majority in the 2010 GE, many people linked the poor public image of Brown with the decline in the party’s vote share. On the other hand, David Cameron received mainly positive press in regards to image, appearing vibrant and ready to take on the job of Prime Minster in almost all parts of the country bar Scotland where he failed to remove the Conservative’s poor reputation from the 1980s/90s. Analysis: a leader with a positive image in the media can help a party to capitalise on an already strong party image – David Cameron was able to convince a large proportion of voters that he was the right man to become PM as the Conservatives took the most seats (306 out of 650) in Westminster.

Knowledge: Likewise a negative image for a party leader can have major consequences for a political party. The Liberal Democrats saw their vote share decrease from 23% in 2010 to just 7.9% in 2015. Much of this can be attributed to the fact that Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg, who had previously enjoyed a very positive image in the public eye, had been seen to “betray” much of his party and their supporters by taking the party into coalition with the Conservatives and reneging on key Lib Dem manifesto promises in the past such as not to raise tuition fees. Similarly, in the 2017 snap election, Theresa May’s image was seen as very poor with her constant use of the phrase “strong and stable leadership” heavily ridiculed both in the media and by other parties as the Conservative Party struggled internally with the in-fighting and disagreements over how to approach Brexit and the economy. Analysis: when a party leader does not have a strong or positive image, the electorate will often be put off voting for their party as they are viewed as poor leaders, incapable of running their party/the government. This can be evidenced in Theresa May’s poor 2017 election campaign. Although the Conservative still formed the government, their majority was wiped out, going from 330 seats in parliament to 317. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9F6c_Hy27c

Extent of Political Party Unity The extent to which a political party is unified in the run-up to an election is seen by some political commentators as a crucial short-term factor in affecting voting behaviour. A disunited party arguing with itself is less likely to attract uncommitted voters. For example, it is argued that there were a number of Labour MPs who were unhappy with Gordon Brown’s leadership and there was talk of a leadership challenge. Another example of disagreement is between those members of the SNP who want an independent Scotland as soon as possible (fundamentalists) and those who would like to secure and retain power in the Scottish Parliament with a long-term aim of independence (gradualists).

Knowledge: Overall party unity is very appealing to voters, especially floating voters who may not have put their trust in a party before. When all members of a political party are seen to be in agreement over key issues and manifesto promises, the party performs better during elections. During the 2011 Scottish Parliament election, the SNP were viewed as a strong, unified party. All candidates were united in their views on having an independence referendum and on other key policies such as healthcare and education. The SNP saw their number of seats increase from 47 in 2007 to 69 in 2011. In contrast, poor party unity can have a detrimental effect on a party’s ability to attract voters. During the 2015 General Election, the Labour Party were viewed as being in internal crisis with many candidates not throwing their full support behind party leader Ed Miliband. The public did not view the party well, with a very mixed message on policy. Analysis: the extent to which a political party seems unified can have a great bearing on voting behaviour. Floating voters in particular will not vote for a party which is in disarray as they will be unlikely to be a stable force in power. A key example of this is the Labour Party in 2015 which lost 26 seats due to poor party unity and the poor image of party leader Ed Miliband.

Short-term Factors Affecting Voting Behaviour Explain why short-term factors are becoming more important as influences on voting behaviour. What is meant by ‘single issue voting’. Give two examples of single issue voting affecting voting behaviour at recent elections. Explain the way in which the image of the party leader can affect voting behaviour. Give examples to improve your answer. Why will floating voters be less likely to trust a party which does not have a great deal of party unity? Give examples to back up your answer. Outline the main issues and influences on voters at the 2015 General Election. On ONE of the following issues create a KAKAE+ paragraph and hand it in for marking. Either: Single Issue Voting, Image of Party Leader or Extent of Party Unity.